Chapter10%20Population-10

Chapter10%20Population-10 - de Janvry and Sadoulet Chapter...

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de Janvry and Sadoulet 1 10/5/10 Chapter 10 Population and Development Revised October 5, 2010 Population growth is both an asset and a liability for development. It is an asset in that a growing population is a source of youthful labor, social security contributions, and expanding markets. At the household level, children are sources of income and protection for their parents. But it is also a liability. From a simple arithmetic standpoint, population growth subtracts from GDP growth in determining growth in per capita income. It also tends to be a source of declining land per capita and food insecurity, environmental degradation, congestion externalities, urban blight, and a drain on public goods and services. At the household level, children are a cost, and we typically associate poverty with large families. So, there are both positive and normative questions associated with population growth. Positive questions include: What are the determinants of fertility behavior? Why do countries go through a demographic transition with a phase of exploding population growth? Why is there a subsequent decline in population growth as per capita income rises? Normative questions include: How to reduce population growth if it is deemed excessive? If contraception is the main instrument to reduce fertility, when is it more important to focus on the supply side or on the demand side of contraception? Our thesis in this chapter is that children fulfill three functions for parents: they are sources of income, insurance, and satisfaction. The transition from high to low fertility – the demographic transition – is associated with children losing their income and insurance functions for parents, only maintaining their universal satisfaction function but increasingly through the quality as opposed to the quantity of children. Understanding the determinants of fertility is key to design population policy. With world population currently reaching 6.8 billion and continuing to grow to peak at some 9 billion in 2042, population policy tends to be a much neglected aspect of international economic development. I. Definitions: Demographic concepts We start with the definition of concepts used in demographic analysis. The crude birth rate ( b ) of a population is the number of births per 1000 people per year. In 2005, it was 46.5 per 1000 in Sierra Leone, 39.2 in Ethiopia, 39.2 in Kenya, 19.8 in Brazil, 19.3 in Mexico, 14 in the U.S., 12.2 in China, and 8.4 in Japan. Take home messages for chapter 10 1. Population growth is a major issue in international development, as it is generally considered to be excessive in developing countries with negative consequences on GDPpc, the provision of basic needs, and environmental sustainability. 2. The demographic transition is an upsurge in population growth associated with death rates declining
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Chapter10%20Population-10 - de Janvry and Sadoulet Chapter...

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