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4 Resource and Waste Management

4 Resource and Waste Management - ENGG1006 Engineering for...

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ENGG1006 - Engineering for Sustainable Development RESOURCE AND WASTE RESOURCE AND WASTE MANAGEMENT MANAGEMENT Office: Rm. 6-30, Haking Wong Building Phone: 2859-1973 E-mail: [email protected] Dr. Kaimin Shih DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG PROGRESS & OUTCOMES Resource Consumption and Prediction Sustainable Development is: A pattern of pattern of resource use that aims to meet human needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. Resource: A source of supply or support Natural Resources Natural Resources …. Non-Renewable Resources Renewable Resources Can be reproduced easily, such as sunlight, wind, crops, fish,… Formed over very long geological time, such as oil, coal, minerals,…
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Accumulative Discovery and Extraction of Copper E = E 0 e kt Growth of Global Metal Extraction Rates Current extraction rate Initial extraction rate Growth of extraction rate Current time t d “ is the “doubling time”, when E = 2E 0 . 4.2 billion tons/year ! Global Coal Use Global Coal Use World Reserve: 900 billion tons Constant consumption rate ( 7 billion tons/year) 132 years Current k = 2.5% 56 years 88 0.16 14 Poland 25 0.20 5.0 Indonesia 34 0.20 6.7 Germany 188 0.26 49 S. Africa 523 0.30 157 Russia 214 0.37 79 Australia 204 0.45 92 India 235 1.05 247 USA 48 2.38 114 China Reserve Life* (Years) Production (Billion tons/year) Reserve (Billion tons) Country * Not considering the growth of production rate. World Oil Consumption In 1000 barrels per day Transportation is the largest sector (55% worldwide and 69% in US) and is also the sector with largest growth in recent decades Growth in demand: average 1.76% from 1994-2006
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World World Energy Energy Consumption Consumption Oil Depletion Prediction In 1970 , reserves = 550 billion barrels & production = 17 billion barrels per year, should be depleted in 32 years . Well, we are surely still producing oil TODAY ! In 2005 , reserves = 1300 billion barrels & production = 30.7 billion barrels per year, depletion in another 42 years ! Reserves vs. Resources Not recoverable under present technology & economic conditions A local ecosystem : Predict the growth rate of an endangered species “ We cannot expect to make accurate predictions of the future. ” A local power generation facility: Predict the local population growth rate over next decays Scientist and policy maker : Estimate deforestation & reforestation rates due to global warming But, we can use simple mathematic models to develop very useful “what if“ scenarios. Assume resource cycle by M. King Hubbert (1969): Begin with exponential growth of production when the resource is relative abundant and cheap Eventually the high price , due to depletion and likely substitutes , will decline the production precipitously back to close to zero . This production rate cycle resembles a symmetrical and bell-shaped curve , same as the normal (or Gaussian ) function used in probability theory.
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