Lecture07 - Rival Causes Rival Cause Plausible alternative...

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Rival Causes
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Rival Cause Plausible alternative explanation Clue: X leads to … X is associated with … X increases the likelihood …
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Detecting Rival Causes 1. Any other way to interpret the evidence? 2. What else might have caused these findings? 3. Another point of view might caused? 4. What other interpretation?
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The Cause or A Cause Single cause vs many contributory causes Causal Oversimplification fallacy
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Scientific Research Hypothesis Dependable research evidence -- law
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Confusing Causation with  Association Confusion of cause and effect Neglect of a common cause Post Hoc fallacy
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Evaluating Rival Causes Logical soundness Consistency with other knowledge Previous success in explaining and predicting events
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Statistics Deceptiveness
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Rewrite the sentence in standard forms for statistical statements Of the fifty workers, ten are absent today In my neighborhood, all the men voted Conservatives in the last election. In a recent survey, six out of ten people watched the Super Bowl on TV People usually say that they work more hours than they actually do.
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20% of the workers are absent today 100% of the men in my neighborhood voted Conservatives in the last election 60% of the people surveyed in a recent survey said that they watched the Super Bowl on TV Most people say that they work longer hours than they actually do
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Men, Women, and Heart Disease: Evidence is mounting that doctors treat women with heart disease less aggressively than they treat men. Women are relatively spared of this disease during the reproductive years. They start catching up to men afterwards. However, according to a recent survey, one in five men suffers a heart attack by age 60 compared to one in seventeen women.
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20% of men suffer a heart attack by age 60 6% of women suffer a heart attack by age 60
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A survey was done on the crime rate.   In this survey, “the people surveyed”  refers to the 50,000 people over 12  years of age who were surveyed.  “The households surveyed” refers to the  households of the people surveyed
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The rate of crime reported in the survey dropped to 12.7 percent, continuing a
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Lecture07 - Rival Causes Rival Cause Plausible alternative...

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