time series analysis

# time series analysis - Time Series Analysis Chapter 16 and...

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1 Time Series 1: Indexing 1 Time Series Analysis Chapter 16 and elsewhere Time Series 1: Indexing 2 Chapter Outline 1. Business forecasting 2. Components of a series 3. Smoothing an annual series 4. Least squares trend fitting 5. Autoregressive models 6. Choosing a model 7. Seasonal data 8. Index numbers (Online)

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2 Time Series 1: Indexing 3 Business Forecasting h Many statisticians specialize in this area. h Lots of unique techniques and practices. h Many of the things we will look at are based on regression analysis. Time Series 1: Indexing 4 A great site for time series data h Over 200,000 series h A subscription site but UF has one h Just need to come in from a UF internet address h http://www.economagic.com/
3 Time Series 1: Indexing 5 Preliminary adjustments h Federal government (Census, BLS, Federal Reserve) agencies publish large collections of time series. Most have websites. h Often find a published series has been adjusted for some type of behavior. h The most common adjustments are for inflation and seasonality. h Section 16.8 (Online) – Index numbers Time Series 1: Indexing 6 Adjusting for inflation Y t = our time series variable; data collected up to time T (t = 1,2,…,T) I t = some index of prices (CPI or other), usually set at 100 in the "base period" A t = series in constant dollars = 100*Y t /I t

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time series analysis - Time Series Analysis Chapter 16 and...

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