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EC307 Lecture 3 - EC307 Jan 11th 2011 Is there a 4th phase...

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EC307 Jan 11th, 2011 Is there a 4th phase? Most of the richer countries (canada and US) in the world have a declining population growth except for immigration. May or may not be a 4th phase in the next 100 years. In log scale - growth rate is constant if you have a straight line. Old Theory (Karl Marx, Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus --> Solow) - Up until the 1860’s people recognized that different countries were at different levels of economic growth. -Didn’t have a good way of measuring it until the 1870’s. -Malthus suggest economic growth could never exist. - More food --> More children --> Diminishing marginal returns to land (mostly farmers) -->population growth leads to less productivity -figure 4.3 As level of pop goes up income goes down. (land) -Richer people had more children than poorer people. As you became richer your chil- dren would live longer. Children were effectively a luxury good. -4.3 As income goes up the growth rate of population goes up. 4.4 -population level (L) -Income per capita (y) -population growth rate (n)
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