Lecture02-MalthusianModel

Lecture02-MalthusianModel - The Malthusian Model UBC - Econ...

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Unformatted text preview: The Malthusian Model UBC - Econ 334 Mauricio Drelichman Bibliography Required: A Farewell to Alms, Chapter 2. Optional: Clark, Gregory. “The Condition of the Working Class in England” Journal of Policial Economy, 2007. The Malthusian logic In all animal populations, births must equal deaths in the long run. This was also true for humans before 1800. Episodes of population growth were temporary. Eventually population stagnated, and the number of surviving children per woman reverted to the replacement rate. Human population might have been about 0.1 million people in 130,000 BC. In 1800, it was 770 million. This implies an average rate of 2.005 surviving children per woman. Useful facts and definitions Birth rate = number of births per thousand people per year. They vary greatly across societies. The maximum biologically possible is about 60. Some African countries today reach 55. Pre-industrial England managed to stay below 30. Death rate = number of deaths per thousand people per year. In a stationary population, life expectancy = 1/death rate = 1/birth rate. Material living standard = amount of goods and services consumed in a society. For most of human history, this consisted mostly of food, clothing, and shelter, which are comparable across time. Modern fertility rates (1998) Country Births per Woman Population 1997 (m.) Income per Person, 1992 ($ 1985) Projected Population 2047 Italy 1.19 57.2 12,721 20.3 Spain 1.22 39.7 9,802 14.8 Germany 1.30 82.2 14,709 34.7 Japan 1.48 125.6 15,105 68.8 France 1.63 58.5 13,918 38.9 Canada 1.61 29.9 16,362 19.4 United Kingdom 1.72 58.2 12,724 43.0 USA 1.96 271.6 17,945 260.8 Brazil 2.17 163.1 3,882 192.0 Bangladesh...
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This note was uploaded on 02/15/2011 for the course ECON 307 taught by Professor Jackson during the Winter '11 term at Wilfred Laurier University .

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Lecture02-MalthusianModel - The Malthusian Model UBC - Econ...

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