311_session_14_forecasting

311_session_14_forecasting - 1 Introduction to Forecasting...

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Unformatted text preview: 1 Introduction to Forecasting BUAD311 Session 14 2 Objectives Introduce the basic concepts of forecasting and its importance within an organization. Identify several of the more common forecasting methods Measure and assess the errors that exist in all forecasts 3 Managerial Issues Recognizing the increased importance of forecasting in both manufacturing and services. How to go about implementing forecasting at all levels in the organization. Why do we care? Planning How many T-shirts to stock. 4 Types of Forecasting Qualitative Techniques Non-quantitative forecasting techniques based on expert opinions and intuition. Typically used when there are no data available. Time Series Analysis Analyzing data by time periods to determine if trends or patterns occur. Causal Relationship Forecasting Relating demand to an underlying factor other than time. (Regression) 5 Qualitative Techniques Subjective, judgmental Based on intuition, estimates, and opinions Expert Opinions Market Research Historical Analogies 6 Time Series Methods Moving average Exponential smoothing More sophisticated techniques available 7 Causal Relationship Multiple Regression Models We learned, or will learn, in statistics classes. We will not discuss here in BUAD311. 8 Characteristic of Forecasts They are usually wrong....
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This note was uploaded on 02/15/2011 for the course BUAD 311 at USC.

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311_session_14_forecasting - 1 Introduction to Forecasting...

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