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MGMT 3830 Homework 3 - MGMT 3830.001 Operations Management...

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MGMT 3830.001 Operations Management Homework 3 Team 14 Nicole Girouard Ryan Barton Hanna Gross Cody Hesseltine Keaton Thomas 2. ………………..
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3. (1) Naive forecasts: F 2 =8200 hours, F 3 = 7800 hours, F 4 = 8400 hours, F 5 = 8000 hours , F 6 = 7400 hours. SMA forecasts: F 4 = (8400 + 7800 + 8200) / 3 = 8133.3333 hours F 5 = (7800 + 8400 + 8000) / 3 = 8066.6667 hours F 6 = (8400 + 8000+ 7400) / 3 = 7933.3333 hours SES forecasts: F 3 = 8300 + 0.2(7800 - 8300) = 8200 hours F 4 = 8200 + 0.2(8400- 8200) = 8240 hours F 5 = 8240 + 0.2(8000 - 8240) = 8192 hours F 6 = 8192 + 0.2(7400 - 8192) = 8033.6 hours Naïve SMA SES t A t F t e t F t e t F t e t --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 8200 xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx 2 7800 8200 -400 8300 -500 3 8400 7800 600 8200 200 4 8000 8400 -400 8133.3333 -133.3333 8240 -240 5 7400 8000 600 8066.6667 -666.6667 8192 -792 6 8600 7400 1200 7933.3333 666.6667 8033.6 566.40 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (2) Naive: MAD = (|-400|+|600|+|-400|+|600|+|1200|) /5= 640 hours SMA: MAD = (|-133.3333|+|-666.6667|+|666.6667|) / 3= 488.8889 hours SES: MAD = (|-500|+|200|+|-240|+|-792|+|566.40|) /5 = 459.68 hours Since 459.68 < 488.8889 < 640, the simple exponential smoothing method is the best and hence should
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