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© 2010 by Harvey A. Singer
1
OM 210:
Statistical Analysis for
Management
Basic Probability
Key Concepts
Dr. Harvey A. Singer
School of Management
George Mason University
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2
Basic Terminology
•
A random experiment
or trial
is any random process
or situation that results in welldefined outcomes
whose occurrences are uncertain.
•
A random experiment
or trial
is any random process
or situation that results in welldefined outcomes
whose occurrences are uncertain.
•
The simplest, most fundamental, possible results
from any random experiment are called the basic
possible outcomes
or simply outcomes
.
•
An event
is a collection of related outcomes.
•
The sample space
of outcomes for a random
experiment is the set of all possible outcomes.
–
The sample space
of events for a random experiment is the
set of all possible events.
© 2010 by Harvey A. Singer
3
Basic Terminology
•
Outcomes (events) are mutually exclusive
of each
other if and only if one outcome (event) can result
from any single trial of the experiment.
–
Applies to outcomes of a single trial.
•
Two events are independent
of each other if and only
if the occurrence of one event is in no way
affected by
the occurrence or nonoccurrence of the other.
–
Applies to successive trials.
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4
Displaying the Sample Space
•
Listing or “enumeration.”
•
Tree diagram.
•
Contingency table.
© 2010 by Harvey A. Singer
5
Sample Space and Tree
•
The sample space contains the is complete list of all
possible outcomes.
•
Written as
S
= {
O
1
,
O
2
,
O
3
, …}
where
O
1
,
O
2
,
O
3
, … are the possible outcomes.
•
A tree diagram is a graphic to show the sample space.
S
= {HH, HT, TH, TT}
**
1
st
Flip
2
nd
Flip
S
= {H, T}
*
H
T
H
T
H
T
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Crosstabulation
•
A table for listing together the sample frequency distributions of two
different variables of interest.
–
n
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This note was uploaded on 02/19/2011 for the course OM 210 taught by Professor Singer during the Spring '08 term at George Mason.
 Spring '08
 SINGER

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