Chapter4 Lecture

Chapter4 Lecture - PROJECTIONS for FUTURE Malthus, Rev....

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PROJECTIONS for FUTURE Malthus, Rev. Thomas (1766-1834) 1798 Essay on Population Growth
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PROJECTIONS for FUTURE Malthus, Rev. Thomas (1766-1834) 1798 Essay on Population Growth Population grows geometrically Food production grows arithmetically Therefore- Population will outstrip resources Advocated later marriage, smaller families Economics = The Dismal Science
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PROJECTIONS for FUTURE Mill, John Stewart Economist 1848 Stationary State Zero Population Growth Zero Economic Growth
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Hypothesis – There is a LIMIT to the NUMBER of people the earth can SUPPORT. IF NOT CONTROLLED – Malthusian misery and vice will afflict mankind What does history show since Malthus/Mill about Population Growth? Resource Availability? Economic Growth? If you bet – did you win or loose?
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Models If we know important structures and functional relationships We can Construct a Model (math) of a system (at least theoretically) WHY? Cheap, Fast, Safe Possible to do Not manipulate reality USES? To Project Future
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Realistic vs General Local Global Accurate Wide Application Precise Model Inputs Determine Model Outputs ? Important Components ? Assumptions of Change http://www.potomacriver.org / Air Pollution – MIRANT Plant – high PM Water – nutrients/dissolved oxygen Water - Toxic
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http://www.potomacriver.org/ http://www.potomacriver.org/water_quality/phase5pre sbytopic.htm
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The Limits to Growth – 1972 (Beyond the Limits – 1992) Meadows, Donella H. Universe Books
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This note was uploaded on 02/28/2011 for the course EVPP 201 taught by Professor Jonas,r during the Spring '08 term at George Mason.

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Chapter4 Lecture - PROJECTIONS for FUTURE Malthus, Rev....

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