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Unformatted text preview: Decision Making and Decision Problem Solving Problem Techniques Techniques “But First, Understand the Problem.”
(Wedberg, 1990) Symptom or Problem? Phrasing the question Question narrows solutions prematurely Moving too quickly into “solution mode” Systematic approach Reflection on your process Decision Making: Decision Five Critical Member Skills Problem analysis Establishing evaluation criteria Generating alternative solutions Evaluation of positive consequences Evaluation of negative consequences Pareto Analysis Pareto The 80/20 Technique
How to hone in quickly on the most important factors in a situation Example Example A manager has taken over an underperforming customer service center. She commissions research to find out why customers think that service is poor. She gets several hundred comments back from the customers falling into the following categories: Survey Responses Survey 1. Phones are only answered after many rings. 2. Staff seem distracted and under pressure. 3. Service personnel do not appear to be well organized. They often need second visits to bring extra parts. Customers are inconvenienced and service is delayed. 4. Staff do not know what time service personnel will arrive at the customer’s location. Customers often lose an entire day just waiting around for the serviceperson. 5. Staff members do not always seem to know what they are doing. 6. Sometimes when servicepeople arrive, the customer finds that the problem could have been solved over the phone. Group the Related Problems Group Lack of staff training: items 5 and 6: 51 complaints Too few staff: items 1, 2 and 4: 21 complaints Poor organization and preparation: item 3: 2 complaints Identify the Identify Most Prominent Problem The vast majority of problems (69%) can be solved by improving staff skills. Focus on training as an issue, rather than spreading effort over training, taking on new staff members, and possibly installing a new computer system. Paired Comparison Analysis Paired Determine the importance of a number of options relative to each other Useful where objective data are incomplete Allows comparing “apples and oranges” Identify
• • the most important problem to solve the maximum marginal return PCA Matrix PCA
Option A A B C D E B C D E Example Example An entrepreneur is looking at ways in which she can expand her business. She has limited resources, but also has the options she lists below: Options Identified Options
A. Expand into overseas markets Expand in home markets Improve customer service Improve quality A. A. A. Option Option A B C D A B A,2 C D Option Option A B C D A B A,2 C C,1 D Option Option A B C D A B A,2 C C,1 D A,1 Option Option A B C D A B A,2 C C,1 C,1 D A,1 B,1 C,2 Analysis of Results Analysis
Expand into overseas markets Expand in home markets Improve customer service Improve quality 3 1 4 0 37.5% 12.5% 50% 0% Grid Analysis Grid
(Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis) Identify factors Prioritize factors Weight factors Scenario Scenario
Rental property developer choosing locations for new development projects Options Options
4 properties under consideration: 123 Main Street 123 Brown Street 123 Harper Street 123 Green Street Factors Factors Ranked Low (0) to High (3) Cost Location visibility Lot size Zoning Demographics actors actors Cost Location Visibility Lot size Zoning Demographi Total cs eights 3 Main 23 Main 3 Brown 23 Brown 3 Harper 23 Harper 3 Green 23 Green actors actors Cost Location Visibility 3 Lot size Zoning Demographi Total cs 1 eights 3 2 2 3 Main 23 Main 3 Brown 23 Brown 3 Harper 23 Harper 3 Green 23 Green actors actors Cost Location Visibility 3 Lot size Zoning Demographi Total cs 1 eights 3 2 2 3 Main 23 Main 3 Brown 23 Brown 3 Harper 23 Harper 3 Green 23 Green 3 0 3 1 1 3 3 2 2 2 1 3 2 2 2 2 3 1 2 2 23 17 26 21 Force Field Analysis Force Force Field Analysis evaluates the forces for and against a decision. A specialized method of weighing pros and cons. Use the analysis to strengthen the forces supporting a decision, and reduce the impact of opposition to it. Charting the Forces Charting Describe your plan or proposal for change in the middle. List all forces for change in one column, and all forces against change in another column. Assign a score to each force, from 1 (weak) to 5 (strong). The Analysis Is the project viable? Improve its probability of success. • Reduce the strength of the forces opposing a project, or • Increase the forces pushing a project Graphical layout Decision Tree Decision • all options can be challenged Fully analyze the consequences Quantify the values of outcomes and the probabilities of achieving them Best decisions based on existing information and best guesses ...
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- Spring '08