datasmoothingexample

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FORECASTS Actual model 1 model 2 model 3 model 4 model 5 model 6 1 2004 January 103.44 3-month 3-mo. 6-mo. --------------- exponentia smoothing 2 2004 February 108.4 moving weighted moving 3 2004 March 154.81 average moving avgaverage a = .1 a=.3 a=.5 4 2004 April 155 (.6, .3, .1) 5 2004 May 150.18 6 2004 June 159.27 7 2004 July 145.25 154.82 156.12 138.52 159.3 159.3 159.3 8 2004 August 145.62 151.57 149.95 139.48 157.9 155.09 152.28 9 2004 Septembe 134.48 150.05 146.88 145.5 156.67 152.25 148.95 10 2004 October 128.54 141.78 138.9 149.23 154.45 146.92 141.71 11 2004 November 114.62 136.21 132.03 145.48 151.86 141.4 135.13 12 2004 December 113.84 125.88 120.78 139.71 148.13 133.37 124.87 13 2005 January 106.88 119 115.54 134.52 144.7 127.51 119.35 14 2005 February 114.83 111.78 109.74 127.03 140.92 121.32 113.12 15 2005 March 150.6 111.85 112.35 122.69 138.31 119.37 113.97 16 2005 April 152.7 124.1 135.49 123.4 139.54 128.74 132.28 17 2005 May 155.96 139.38 148.28 126 140.86 135.93 142.49 18 2005 June 166.15 153.08 154.44 129.92 142.37 141.94 149.23 19 2005 July 145.93 158.27 161.75 137.28 144.75 149.2 157.69 20 2005 August 161.9 156.01 153 141.86 144.86 148.22 151.81 21 2005 Septembe 151.35 158 157.54 149.72 146.57 152.33 156.86 22 2005 October 139.15 153.06 153.97 154.94 147.05 152.03 154.1 23 2005 November 124.04 150.8 145.08 153.31 146.26 148.17 146.62 24 2005 December 112.51 138.18 131.3 149.21 144.03 140.93 135.33 25 2006 January 114.26 125.23 118.63 143 140.88 132.4 123.92 26 2006 February 115.62 116.93 114.71 135.59 138.22 126.96 119.09 27 2006 March 146.73 114.13 114.9 131.26 135.96 123.56 117.35 28 2006 April 130.82 125.53 134.15 129.09 137.04 130.51 132.04 29 2006 May 144.49 131.05 134.07 126.16 136.41 130.6 131.43 30 2006 June 139.25 140.68 140.61 126.92 137.22 134.77 137.96 31 2006 July 111.63 138.19 139.98 129.1 137.42 136.11 138.6 32 2006 August 121.5 131.79 123.2 128.97 134.85 128.77 125.12 33 2006 Septembe 97.73 124.13 120.31 130 133.51 126.59 123.31 34 2006 October 98.02 110.29 106.25 127.45 129.93 117.93 110.52 35 2006 November 82.16 105.75 100.28 120.49 126.74 111.96 104.27 36 2006 December 76.02 92.64 88.47 113.54 122.28 103.02 93.21 37 2007 January 80.3 85.4 80.06 103.76 117.66 94.92 84.62 38 2007 February 79.35 79.49 79.2 95.34 113.92 90.53 82.46 39 2007 March 103.38 78.56 79.3 90.73 110.46 87.18 80.91 40 2007 April 98.57 87.68 93.86 88.14 109.76 92.04 92.14 41 2007 May 106.58 93.77 98.09 88.26 108.64 94 95.35 42 2007 June 97.15 102.84 103.86 89.48 108.43 97.77 100.97 43 2007 July 89.82 100.77 100.12 91.62 107.3 97.59 99.06 44 2007 August 87.51 97.85 93.69 93.59 105.55 95.26 94.44 45 2007 September 66.58 91.49 89.16 94.62 103.75 92.93 90.97 46 2007 October 70.72 81.3 75.18 92.8 100.03 85.03 78.78 47 2007 November 54.74 74.94 71.16 88.13 97.1 80.73 74.75 48 2007 December 45.19 64.01 60.72 81.87 92.87 72.94 64.75 49 2008 January 47.53 56.88 50.61 73.1 88.1 64.61 54.97 50 2008 February 47.53 49.15 47.55 66.01 84.04 59.49 51.25
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51 2008 March 53.57 46.75 47.3 59.97 80.39 55.9 49.39 52 2008 April 62.73 49.54 51.15 55.12 77.71 55.2 51.48 53 2008 May 61.15 54.61 58.46 54.57 76.21 57.46 57.11 54 2008 June 58.7
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