c14_disease_dyn - Spreading Processes Modeling Infectious...

Info iconThis preview shows pages 1–11. Sign up to view the full content.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
This is the end of the preview. Sign up to access the rest of the document.

Unformatted text preview: Spreading Processes Modeling Infectious Disease Dynamics with Networks What is epidemiology? Terms Susceptible Infected Epidemic Questions asked: will an epidemic occur? what is the typical size of an outbreak? what determines the probability of an epidemic? How do we control the spread? S I R susceptible infectious recovered Compartmental models I dt dR I I IS dt dI IS dt dS =-- =- = S I R susceptible infectious recovered Compartmental models R = Infection rate Mortality + Recovery rate Reproductive Ratio/Number: average number of secondary cases per infected individual SARS and its Reproductive Ratio (R0) Initial estimates for SARS: R 0 = 2.2 - 3.7 R = reproductive ratio b number of secondary infections caused by a single infected person Generation time 10 days SARS spread unchecked in China for 120 days. 30,000-10,000,000 782 Days 10 20 30 40 120 Ref: Meyers et al (2005) J Theor Biol. 2005 Jan 7;232(1):71-81 Whats missing in this model? poet infant S I R nurse teacher susceptible infectious removed Review: Compartmental Models S I R susceptible infectious removed Advantages :- Simple-Extendable- Amenable to mathematical analysis Disadvantage :- Assume everyone in the population is equally vulnerable to infection and to spreading infection. What can we do to fix this? Terminology Node (vertex): These represent people or places that can become infected Degree: The number of dges coming out of a 6 Edge: contacts between nodes (people) that can lead to disease transmission edges coming out of a node 1 3 2 CONTACT NETWORK (graph) What makes up a contact network?What makes up a contact network?...
View Full Document

This document was uploaded on 03/01/2011.

Page1 / 35

c14_disease_dyn - Spreading Processes Modeling Infectious...

This preview shows document pages 1 - 11. Sign up to view the full document.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
Ask a homework question - tutors are online