c14_disease_dyn - Spreading Processes Modeling Infectious...

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Unformatted text preview: Spreading Processes Modeling Infectious Disease Dynamics with Networks What is epidemiology? Terms Susceptible Infected Epidemic Questions asked: will an epidemic occur? what is the typical size of an outbreak? what determines the probability of an epidemic? How do we control the spread? S I R susceptible infectious recovered Compartmental models I dt dR I I IS dt dI IS dt dS =-- =- = S I R susceptible infectious recovered Compartmental models R = Infection rate Mortality + Recovery rate Reproductive Ratio/Number: average number of secondary cases per infected individual SARS and its Reproductive Ratio (R0) Initial estimates for SARS: R 0 = 2.2 - 3.7 R = reproductive ratio b number of secondary infections caused by a single infected person Generation time 10 days SARS spread unchecked in China for 120 days. 30,000-10,000,000 782 Days 10 20 30 40 120 Ref: Meyers et al (2005) J Theor Biol. 2005 Jan 7;232(1):71-81 Whats missing in this model? poet infant S I R nurse teacher susceptible infectious removed Review: Compartmental Models S I R susceptible infectious removed Advantages :- Simple-Extendable- Amenable to mathematical analysis Disadvantage :- Assume everyone in the population is equally vulnerable to infection and to spreading infection. What can we do to fix this? Terminology Node (vertex): These represent people or places that can become infected Degree: The number of dges coming out of a 6 Edge: contacts between nodes (people) that can lead to disease transmission edges coming out of a node 1 3 2 CONTACT NETWORK (graph) What makes up a contact network?What makes up a contact network?...
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c14_disease_dyn - Spreading Processes Modeling Infectious...

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