CEE 597 Final2009r - CEE 5970 Risk Analysis and Management...

Info iconThis preview shows pages 1–3. Sign up to view the full content.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
CEE 5970 Risk Analysis and Management Final Exam 2009 Final EXAM Wed. May 13, 2009, 7-9:30 pm Test is open book & open notes. You have 150 minutes for this 150 point exam. Write clearly and show important steps. 1. (10 pts) Swine Flu was in the news this year. Propose 3 quantitative criteria that can be used to compare different dimensions of the individual and global consequences (risks) to health [or related issues] posed by this disease relative to traffic accidents, another modern hazard. Describe clearly what dimension of risk each criterion captures in contrast to your other 2 criteria (TSI, RSI, P, E, R-of-A,. ..). 2. (10 pts) The reading considered a number of case studies, each of which had its own lessons. For those concerned with industrial safety, and the safety of both workers and the public, describe clearly the 4 most critical lessons that came out of the Bhopal incident. [Provide a sentence to explain each lesson. Answers that use concepts developed in the lectures and the articles receive more credit.] 3. (15 pts) One source estimates that a major natural disasters killing 20 or more Americans occurs on average 4 times every 25 years. If that were true: (a) What is the probability of exactly two such events during the four years 2009-2012 of the Obama Administration? (b) What is the mean and variance of the number of such disasters during those four years? (c) What is the probability that the next 8 years will pass without a single natural disaster occurring that kills 20 or more Americans? (d) What is the mean and variance of the time that will pass before 5 natural disasters occur each of which kills 20 or more Americans? (e) Why is a Poisson process a reasonable model for the arrival of such events? 4. Consider the network below. (a) (8 pts) Please list all of the minimal cut sets with 1, 2, 3 or 4 elements. (b) (3 pts) If all elements are 98% reliable, what is the reliability of the system? (c) (2 pts) In this economy, people want to save money. Are their any components that could be dropped (omitted) without a significant decrease in system reliability? Why? (d) (2 pts) If you could improve just one component, which would you select and why A H E F C B G D 5. (8 pts) Consider a system with two components in parallel . Assume the failure of each component is independent of the other and follows a Poisson processes with failure rates of 3x10 -3 per hour and 1x10 -2 per day . (a) What is the probability of failure within 5 days ? (b) What is the mean time before failure?
Background image of page 1

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
2009 CEE 5970 Examination Page 2 of 4 6. (12 pts) A statistician with the State Department of Health needs to estimate the infant mortality rates in different counties in a state so as to allocate money for pre-natal care. The overall state-wide average infant mortality rate in the first year of life is 0.003
Background image of page 2
Image of page 3
This is the end of the preview. Sign up to access the rest of the document.

This note was uploaded on 03/02/2011 for the course CEE 5970 taught by Professor Stedinger during the Spring '07 term at Cornell University (Engineering School).

Page1 / 4

CEE 597 Final2009r - CEE 5970 Risk Analysis and Management...

This preview shows document pages 1 - 3. Sign up to view the full document.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
Ask a homework question - tutors are online