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CEE 597 Final2009r

# CEE 597 Final2009r - CEE 5970 Risk Analysis and Management...

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CEE 5970 Risk Analysis and Management Final Exam 2009 Final EXAM Wed. May 13, 2009, 7-9:30 pm Test is open book & open notes. You have 150 minutes for this 150 point exam. Write clearly and show important steps. 1. (10 pts) Swine Flu was in the news this year. Propose 3 quantitative criteria that can be used to compare different dimensions of the individual and global consequences (risks) to health [or related issues] posed by this disease relative to traffic accidents, another modern hazard. Describe clearly what dimension of risk each criterion captures in contrast to your other 2 criteria (TSI, RSI, P, E, R-of-A,. ..). 2. (10 pts) The reading considered a number of case studies, each of which had its own lessons. For those concerned with industrial safety, and the safety of both workers and the public, describe clearly the 4 most critical lessons that came out of the Bhopal incident. [Provide a sentence to explain each lesson. Answers that use concepts developed in the lectures and the articles receive more credit.] 3. (15 pts) One source estimates that a major natural disasters killing 20 or more Americans occurs on average 4 times every 25 years. If that were true: (a) What is the probability of exactly two such events during the four years 2009-2012 of the Obama Administration? (b) What is the mean and variance of the number of such disasters during those four years? (c) What is the probability that the next 8 years will pass without a single natural disaster occurring that kills 20 or more Americans? (d) What is the mean and variance of the time that will pass before 5 natural disasters occur each of which kills 20 or more Americans? (e) Why is a Poisson process a reasonable model for the arrival of such events? 4. Consider the network below. (a) (8 pts) Please list all of the minimal cut sets with 1, 2, 3 or 4 elements. (b) (3 pts) If all elements are 98% reliable, what is the reliability of the system? (c) (2 pts) In this economy, people want to save money. Are their any components that could be dropped (omitted) without a significant decrease in system reliability? Why? (d) (2 pts) If you could improve just one component, which would you select and why A H E F C B G D 5. (8 pts) Consider a system with two components in parallel . Assume the failure of each component is independent of the other and follows a Poisson processes with failure rates of 3x10 -3 per hour and 1x10 -2 per day . (a) What is the probability of failure within 5 days ? (b) What is the mean time before failure?

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2009 CEE 5970 Examination Page 2 of 4 6. (12 pts) A statistician with the State Department of Health needs to estimate the infant mortality rates in different counties in a state so as to allocate money for pre-natal care. The overall state-wide average infant mortality rate in the first year of life is 0.003
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CEE 597 Final2009r - CEE 5970 Risk Analysis and Management...

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