CEE 5970
–
Risk Analysis and Management
Final Exam 2009
Final EXAM Wed. May 13, 2009, 79:30 pm
Test is open book & open notes.
You have 150 minutes for this 150 point exam.
Write clearly
and
show
important steps.
1. (10 pts) Swine Flu was in the news this year.
Propose 3 quantitative criteria
that can be used
to compare different dimensions of the individual and global consequences (risks) to health [or
related issues] posed by
this disease
relative to
traffic accidents,
another modern hazard.
Describe clearly what dimension of risk each criterion captures in contrast to your other 2 criteria
(TSI, RSI, P, E, RofA,.
..).
2.
(10 pts) The reading considered a number of case studies, each of which had its own
lessons. For those concerned with industrial safety, and the safety of both workers and the
public, describe clearly the
4 most critical lessons
that came out of the Bhopal incident.
[Provide a sentence to explain each lesson. Answers that use concepts developed in the
lectures and the articles receive more credit.]
3. (15 pts) One source estimates that a major natural disasters killing 20 or more Americans occurs
on average 4 times every 25 years. If that were true:
(a) What is the probability of exactly two such events during the four years 20092012 of the
Obama Administration?
(b) What is the mean and variance of the number of such disasters during those four years?
(c) What is the probability that the next 8 years will pass without a single natural disaster
occurring that kills 20 or more Americans?
(d) What is the mean and variance of the time that will pass before 5 natural disasters occur
each of which kills 20 or more Americans?
(e) Why is a Poisson process a reasonable model for the arrival of such events?
4. Consider the
network
below.
(a) (8 pts) Please list all of the minimal cut sets with 1, 2, 3 or 4 elements.
(b) (3 pts) If all elements are 98% reliable, what is the reliability of the system?
(c) (2 pts) In this economy, people want to save money. Are their any components that
could be dropped (omitted) without a significant decrease in system reliability?
Why?
(d) (2 pts) If you could improve just one component, which would you select and why
A
H
E
F
C
B
G
D
5. (8 pts)
Consider a system with two components in
parallel
. Assume the failure of each
component is independent of the other and follows a Poisson processes with failure rates of
3x10
3
per
hour
and
1x10
2
per
day
.
(a) What is the probability of failure within 5
days
?
(b) What is the mean time before failure?
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6. (12 pts) A statistician with the State Department of Health needs to estimate the infant
mortality rates in different counties in a state so as to allocate money for prenatal care.
The overall statewide average infant mortality rate in the first year of life is 0.003
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 Spring '07
 Stedinger
 pts, Risk management strategies, CEE 5970

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