CEE_597_Final_1998 - CEE 597 Risk Analysis and Management...

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CEE 597 - Risk Analysis and Management Final Exam Wed. May 7,1998; 3 noon to 5:30 pm. Test is open book and open notes. You have 150 minutes for this 150 point exam. Write clearly and Show important steps. Again my apology: I hope you hmedmore thn this simp& test addresses. 1. (8 points) Different peopk indulge themselves in different ways. Some peopk smoke, some enjoy motorcycle riding, and others go rock climbing. Define 3 different quantitative criteria that can be applied to and used to describe health risks associated with all three activities. Indicate for each criteria why it is important, what dimension of risk it emphasizes, and what it neglects. 2. (8 points) Of all the case studies (except TMI) we discussed or in the reading (Bhopal, Titianic, DC- 10, Challenger, different short studies ...), which one was your favorite? What -did it teach about the character of system failures? (2-3 paragraphs) 3. (15 points) Three college friends Amy, Joe, and Lasandra decide after slope day to go camping. They grab their sleeping bags and related camping gear, a few cans of food, and a box of pots and assorted items. At dinner time the question arises: Do they have some tool for opening the canned food? A manual can opener might be in the box (p = 0.6), Amy and Joe might have brought their pocket knives which have a can opener (p = 0.30 for each knife). Lasandra thinks she brought her portable can opener (p = 0.75) that uses D-size batteries, but she completely forgot to bring batteries (p = 0). Amy and Joe might have D batteries in their flashlights (p = 0.20 each). a) Describe this problem by an event tree (lay out the events, unnecessary branches). b) Draw a fault tree to describe this situation. C) Use your fault tree to compute the probability they can open the cans for dinner. 4 (12 points) Consider the system described by the netwwk below. a) What are all the minimal cut sets? b) If all elements have a 5% failure rate, except A which is 99% reliable, what approximately is the probability that the system fails? E) Draw a fault tree for the system. d) If you could upgrade any component in the original network to 99% reliability, which would most improve system reliability?
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5. (12 points) Close calls (violations of safe distance regulations) occur at an airport on average at a rate of 0.04 per day. a) What is the mean and variance of the number that occur per year. b) What is the probability that there is at least one close call in a 30 day period? C) What are the mean and variance of the time until the 5th close call. d) Is a Poisson process a good model of the arrival of such events? Why or why not. 6. (20 points) Consider the 3 marketing strategies (illustrated below) advocated by Susan, Matt and Anna. Assume that outcomes 1 and 2 and 3 are all equally likely. Susan Matt Anna Markets poor Steady economy Hot market In answering the qarestzons balm ya my use, but are not restricted to: Average Gain Stand. Deviation Maximum possible Median a) What criteria would be helpful to quantify the relative attractiveness of these three proposals?
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CEE_597_Final_1998 - CEE 597 Risk Analysis and Management...

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