CEE_597_Final_Exam_and_Soln08 - CEE 597 Risk Analysis and...

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CEE 597 – Risk Analysis and Management Final Exam 2008 Wed. May 7, 2008, 7-9:30 pm Open book & open notes. You have 150 minutes for this150 point exam. Write clearly and show important steps. 1. (7 pts) Cyclone Nargis hit Myanmar in Southeast Asia on 3 May, 2008. Causalities are now anticipated to exceed 23,000 individuals. “ ‘More deaths were caused by the tidal wave than the storm itself,’ said the first official description of the destruction. ‘The wave was up to 12 feet high and it swept away and inundated half the houses in low-lying villages. They did not have anywhere to flee.’ ” ( New York Times, 6 May 2008). (a) In the context of other historical and recent major natural disasters, is this an unusually large number of causalities? (b) What natural disasters generally result in the largest numbers of deaths? (c) What type of natural disaster in the United States results in the largest economic losses, but relatively few deaths? Why does that make sense? 2. (16 pts) A study published in Science Magazine claims that an average of 830 meteorites large enough to pick up fall to the Earth’s surface each year. The arrival rate of such meteorites for a land area of 10 6 km 2 is 1.6 per year. Given that Ithaca has an area of 16 km 2 , compute the following: [data from http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/rapidpdf/223/4643/1405.pdf?ck=nck] (a) The probability of one or more such meteorites falling in Ithaca during a 4-year undergraduate education at Cornell. (b) The mean and standard deviation of the time until one such meteorite falls in Ithaca. (c) The probability that exactly two such meteorites land somewhere on the earth’s surface on the day of 1 January 2009. (d) Why might a Poisson model be reasonable for this situation? 3. (10 pts) Consider the fault tree below. C D E A B What is the system failure probability if the component failure probabilities are P(A) = 0.10; P(B) = 0.15; P(C) = 0.20; P(D) = 0.30 and P(E) = 0.35? 4. Consider the network below. (a) (10 pts) Please list all of the minimal cut sets. (b) (5 pts) If all elements are 95% reliable, what is the reliability of the system? (c) (3 pts) To save money, which 3 components could you replace with units that have a 90% reliability and not impact the system reliability by much? (d) (2 pts) If you could improve one component, which would you select and why?
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2008 CEE 597 Examination Page 2 of 4 A H E F C B G D 5. (15 pts) A low-level liquid radioactive waste disposal site is opening near your town. This will result in the regular transport of low-level radioactive waste through your town. The waste will be transported from a rail yard through the town to the disposal site via truck. In your town, truck accidents occur with an arrival rate of 25 per year, and the trucks carrying waste will account for 4% of the truck traffic that passes through town. Truck accidents can
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CEE_597_Final_Exam_and_Soln08 - CEE 597 Risk Analysis and...

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