CEE_597_Final2002 - CEE 597 Risk Analysis and Management...

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Page 1 of 4 CEE 597 Risk Analysis and Management Final Exam (revised) Friday --- May 10, 2002 --- 3:00 to 5:30 pm. Test is open book & open notes. You have 150 minutes for this 150 point exam. Write clearly and show important steps. And remember, I hope you learned more than I could include on this exam. - JRS 0. (5 pts.) Put your name and college on your exam book, and sign at the bottom. 1. (12 pts.) Consider a proposal to introduce a new fuel that would replace home heating oil. It would cost about the same amount as heating oil, but be more convenient because it is a (invisible and odorless) gas and can be pumped into homes. It has been estimated that its use and the corresponding accidents might result in the deaths of a couple hundred Americans per year. Can you guess the product’s name? Define 3 criteria that would be useful in a comparative quantitative risk analysis of individual, household and national risks and perhaps benefits from use of these two products to heat American homes? What does each criteria emphasize. 2. Consider the fault tree below. System Failure A B D C a) (5 pts.) If each element has a 10% chance of failing, what is the reliability of the system? b) (5 pts.) Draw a network diagram for this system. 3. Consider the system described by the network below. c) (7 pts.) What are all the minimal cut sets? d) (3 pts ) If all elements are 98% reliable, approximately what is the RELIABILITY of entire system? e) (2 pts.) If you could upgrade ANY ONE component in the original network to a reliability of 99.98%, which would most improve the reliability of the system? A F B C E D 4. Two terrorists, called T1 and T2, constitute a secret cell in Chicago that may attempt to load a Sport Utility Vehicle (SUV) with explosives and bomb a federal building. Their High Command has decided to initiate their mission.
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Page 2 of 4 Determine the probability profile for the number of deaths, given the data below. The High Command needs to get $20,000 to T1 and T2 for materials and expenses. There is a 75% probability that a European connection will deliver. If the money does not come through Europe, T2 will request the money from Indonesia, which has a 60% chance of success. If both of those fail, T2 will request the money directly from the Middle-East; in that case there is only a 25% probability the money will arrive within the time allowed. If the money is obtained, there is a 80% probability the explosives can be obtained without being detected by the FBI and state police. If the purchase is detected, there is a 50% probability the two are arrested before they can carry out their godless, evil and sinister plot. With the explosives, and if they are not arrested, the two will load their SUV and attempt to proceed to the target. The Feds have increased security so they may not get to position the SUV at their prime target P, and may divert to a secondary target S, or local security may become suspicious, and T1 and T2 will be taken into custody and the plot will fail. SUV is located
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CEE_597_Final2002 - CEE 597 Risk Analysis and Management...

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