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Unformatted text preview: Page 1 of 4 CEE 597 – Risk Analysis and Management Final Exam Wednesday --- May 14, 2003 --- 3:00 to 5:30 pm. Test is open book & open notes. You have 150 minutes for this 150 point exam. Write clearly and show important steps. 1. (12 pts.) The Bush administration is very concerned with terrorism and attacks on Americans at home and abroad. Terrorist activities could be directed at people, at commerce, or at property. Prof. Stedinger suggested to a Chicago Tribune reporter that one could compare the risk posed by terrorists with that of motor vehicle accidents. Fires in large residential property might also be used to illustrate risks which people in our society face. (a) Propose 3 different quantitative criteria that would be useful in a quantitative risk analysis that attempted to compare these three risks for the American public. (b) What does each criteria emphasize? (c) Is this risk comparison (among terrorism versus motor vehicle accidents or large residential fires ) an appropriate and informative comparison? Please give two additional examples, one that would be an unnatural risk comparison, and one that would be an appropriate risk comparison for helping the public appreciate the relative risk they face from terrorism. Tell why the one is appropriate and the other is not appropriate. 2. (8 pts.) In no more than 2 pages in your exam book, which case study in the reading had the most profound lesson for risk management in our society? What was the lesson? What are the implications of that lesson for the management of risk in our society? 3. Consider the fault tree below. C A B D E a) (6 pts.) If each element has a 6% chance of failing, what is the reliability of the system? b) (6 pts.) Draw a network diagram for this system, if it can be done. (If not, why not?) 4. Consider the system described by the network below. a) (8 pts.) What are ALL the minimal cut sets with 1, 2 or 3 components? b) (4 pts ) If all elements are 95% reliable, approximately what is the failure probability for the entire system? c) (3 pts.) If you could upgrade ANY TWO components in the original network to a reliability of 99 %, what two substitutions would most improve system reliability? Page 2 of 4 A B C D E F G H K 5. Consider a system with two independent components in parallel . Assume component failures are independent Poisson processes with failure rates of 10-3 per hour and 10-4 per hour. (a) (1 pt.) Draw a fault tree for the system. (b) (5 pts.) How long can the system be operated with 99.9% confidence that it will not fail? (c) (4 pts.) After 2,000 hours the component with a failure rate of 10-3 per hour failed, and left the component with a failure rate of 10-4 per hour operating. Starting at that point, what is the mean and variance of the time until that second component fails....
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This note was uploaded on 03/02/2011 for the course CEE 5970 taught by Professor Stedinger during the Spring '07 term at Cornell University (Engineering School).
- Spring '07