CEE_597_Final2005r - CEE 597 Risk Analysis and Management...

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CEE 597 – Risk Analysis and Management Final Exam Friday – May 13, 2005, 3:00–5:30 pm. Test is open book & open notes. You have 150 minutes for this 150 point exam. Write clearly and show important steps. First I apologize that I cannot to write an exam that begins to test the depth and breadth of the subject matter the course has addressed. I must leave the real test to the rest of your life’s. 1. (15 points) Please construct a fault tree for the following situation: A Boy Scout patrol is going on a special over-night survival hike. To save weight they intend to minimize the equipment they take. At the destination they will need the following 4 items to complete a series of challenges: Boy Scout Handbook A knife or saw 50 feet of rope patrol first aid kit The patrol has 5 members: Sam, Jacob, Daniel, K2, and Michael. Sam and Jacob should bring their knives, Daniel was assigned to bring a saw. K2 and Michael promised to bring 50 feet of rope each. K2 is responsible for the patrol First Aid Kit and Scout Handbook. Assume that every scout actually goes on that trip, but that a scout may forget to bring items that he promised to bring. Interest is in the event the patrol has ALL the equipment they need. (Extra equipment is alright. If in doubt specify required assumptions.) 2. (10 points) Consider the fault tree below. Elements A-B-C are 99% reliable, whereas D-E have a 10% failure probability. What is the reliability of this system? A D E B C 3. Consider the system described by the network below. a) (9 pts.) What are ALL the minimal cut sets with 1, 2 or 3 components? b) (4 pts ) If all elements are 99% reliable, approximately what is the failure probability for the entire system? c) (2 pts.) If you could upgrade ANY ONE components in the original network to a reliability of 99.9 %, what upgrade would most improve system reliability?
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2005 CEE 597 Examination Page 2 of 11 A B C E F H D G 4. (10 pts) On Tuesday Prof. Stedinger walked around the environmental laboratories with an inspector from Cornell Environmental Health & Safety. Stedinger estimated that the inspector found a significant safety violation every 20 mins. At that rate, if the inspector spends 5 hours touring the laboratories in a building, what is the mean and variance of the number of significant violations he will detect? What is the probability that he finds at most one significant safety violation (zero or one) during the five hours? 5. (15 pts) A significant issue in hospitals is whether patients receive the medicines doctor prescribe, and in correct amounts. Errors can have both minor and deadly impacts. Just before going to a new and highly recommended computer-based prescription management system, a hospital management organization checked on 2000 patients and found 5 prescription errors. After a trial period, examination of 1000 patients revealed only one prescription error with the new system. (a) (7 pts.) What are the null & alternative hypotheses for a test of whether the new
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CEE_597_Final2005r - CEE 597 Risk Analysis and Management...

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