CEE_597_Final2007r - CEE 597 Risk Analysis and Management...

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CEE 597 – Risk Analysis and Management Final Exam 2007 Final EXAM Sat. May 12, 2007, 9-11:30 am Test is open book & open notes. You have 150 minutes for this 150 point exam. Write clearly and show important steps. 1. (10 pts) Perhaps the current national focus on threat assessment will also make the United States less vulnerable to major losses and disruption due to natural hazards (hurricanes, tornados, floods, landslides, earthquakes…). Is this true? Please be clear about what such studies involve, and provide specific examples to support your position. [Answers that use concepts developed in the lectures and the articles receive more credit.] 2. (10 pts) An environmental monitoring network is finding that its many sensors fail frequently due to weather, fouling, accidents, animal attacks … Assume that failures occur as a Poisson process and that the project has been experiencing about 3 sensor failures a week. [One week = 7 days.] (a) What is the mean and standard deviation of the length of time until 10 failures occur? (b) What is the probability that a 5 day period would pass with at most one failure? 3. Consider the fault tree below. C D E A B (a) (8 pts) Please draw the equivalent network diagram such as that in problem 4 below. (b) (7 pts) If the probabilities of failure are P(A) = 0.10; P(B) = 0.25; P(C) = 0.30; P(D) = 0.40 and P(E) = 0.45; what is the probability of a system failure? 4. Consider the network below. (a) (8 pts) Please list all of the minimal cut sets with 1, 2, 3 or 4 elements. (b) (3 pts) If all elements are 99% reliable, what is the reliability of the system? (c) (2 pts) To save money, which component could be replaced with a unit that has a 90% reliability while having a small impact on overall system reliability? (d) (2 pts) If you could improve one component, which would you select and why?
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2007 CEE 597 Examination Page 2 of 8 A B E F H C G D 5. (10 pts) Debris on our country’s highways is causing accidents. [See New York Times 10 May 2007; www.nytimes.com/2007/05/11/us/11debris.html?th&emc=th] Along a particular stretch of highway, pickup trucks and automobiles experience loss-of-property (debris) events at the rate of 0.15 events per day. Losses correspond to 5 lbs, 15 lbs, 35 lbs and 100 lbs with probabilities of 0.6, 0.25, 0.1, and 0.05. Generate and draw a risk profile for the magnitude (weight) of these highway loss-of-property events. 6. (15 pts) A hospital is conducting research to evaluate the side effects of two competing products, denoted CREAM and PATCH, for treating a rare skin disease. CREAM has been the accepted treatment. PATCH is new and seeks approval. Though more expensive, PATCH is a more specific treatment for the disease and thus should have fewer significant side effects. Treatment of patients who took CREAM lasted for 12 months, whereas the PATCH trials
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CEE_597_Final2007r - CEE 597 Risk Analysis and Management...

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