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CEE_597_Midterm_1994

# CEE_597_Midterm_1994 - CEE 597 Risk Analysis and Management...

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CEE 597 - Risk Analysis and Management Midterm Exam 1994 Test is open book and open notes. Shao work to justify answers. You have 50 minutes to complete this 50 point exam. 1. (9 points) Suppose 8 major kain derailment accidents occur per year, and arrival of "major train derailments" is a Poisson process. a) What is probability of one or more accidents in a given month ? b) If I started a special investigation of major derailments, what is mean and variance of time until 12 major derailments occur? C) Why is a Poisson process a good model for "major derailments" ? 2. (15 points) Consider the network below. a) What are the minimal cut sets ? b) If all components have reliability R = 99%, provide a good estimate of reliability of system. C) If you had the opportunity to improve the reliability of just one component, which should you upgrade ? d) Draw a fault tree to allow calculation of the failure probability for system above. (You do have to do the calculation.) e) What is reliability of the system described by the fault tree below if all components have reliability R = 99%. System Failure

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CEE 597 - Risk Analysis and Management Midterm Exam 1994 3) (8 points) A hospital examined the frequency and source of calls for people requiring attention for cardiac problems, and the probability a call corresponds to a "serious heart attack." They found: Location Qfdh home industrial location business location
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