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CEE_597_Midterm_2001 - CEE 597 Risk Analysis and Management...

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CEE 597 -- Risk Analysis and Management Midterm 2001 Test is open book and open notes. You have 50 minutes to complete this 50 point exam. Show importanlt steps. 1. (10 points) All this snow makes one want to get outside. But Pun can be dangerous! Consider snow boarding at a resort with lifts, participating in a toboggan racing team, or playing hockey at a neighborhood rink such as Cass park in Ithaca. Propose 3 different quantitative criteria useful for colnparinag different aspects of these risks to par~cipants. In 2-3 sentences indicate for each criteria why it is importal~t what dimension of risk it emphasizes in the comparison, and what it neglects. 2. (5 points) In 1900 the death rate in the US from cancer was 107/100,000 and ranked 5th among the major killers. However, in 1990 the death rate from cancer was 1951 100,000 and it ranked 2nd among the major killers! In a short paragraph, explain WHY this is, or is nod a reason for alarm. What statistic would you recornend calculating that would best clarify this issue? What would it show? 3. (8 points) Consider ;a system with two independent components in series. Assume cornponenl failures are independent Poisson processes with failure rates of 0.01 /month and 0.021 month, respectively. (a) How long will this system Past on average before it fails? (b) What is the probability the system operatesfor nt least a year? (c) If the engineer decides this system is not sufficiently reliable and adds a third componea~t with exponential failure rate 0.031 month in parallel with these two, what then is the probabiliq the expanded system operatesfor at least a y ~ a r ? (d) Draw a fault tree for the systern in (c). 4. (7 points) Consider the system described by the nelwor k: a) What are all the mil~imal cut sets? b) If all elennents are 99.9% reliable, what approximately is the probabiliv the system i d s ?
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