CEE_597_Midterm_2005

CEE_597_Midterm_2005 - CEE 597 Risk Analysis and Management...

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CEE 597 – Risk Analysis and Management Evening Midterm Exam March 10, 2005 Test is open book and open notes. You have 90 minutes to complete this 90 point exam. Show work. 1. (12 points) Consider the Science article below addressing health risks from Vioxx , a widely used pain killer. Drugs and medicines have both positive and negative health impacts. Propose 3 quantitative criteria that can be used to compare different dimensions of the negative impacts (risks) to health [or related issues] posed by Vioxx , Advil [a milder alternative general purpose pain killer], and oral contraceptives (to prevent pregnancy; has circulatory system impacts), Your criteria should allow an individual or a regulator at FDA to contrast 3 different dimensions of those risks. Describe clearly what dimension of life risk in this case each criterion captures in contrast to your other 2 criterion (TSI, RSI, P, E, R-of-A,. ..). 2. (6 points) In not more than 1 page in your exam book tell (a) which case study in Bignell and Fortune Chapter 7 Short Studies had the most profound lesson for risk analysis and risk management in our society. (b) What was the lesson? (c) What are the implications of that lesson for risk analysis and management in our society? (d) How did both technical and social/managerial issues contribute to the problem?
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CEE 597 – Risk Analysis and Management Midterm Examination for 2005 Page 2 3. (15 points) Airports now perform chemical analysis on luggage before it is allowed to go on airlines. During an evening a large airport needs to process luggage for 2500 departing passengers per hour for domestic flights, and another 500 for international flights. It is estimated that the luggage from 1 passenger in 200 will trigger just an alert that needs to be investigated, whereas an additional 1 passenger in 1000 will trigger an alert AND an immediate-action-warning requiring a detailed and thorough check of their luggage. Of the passengers that trigger just an alert , 90% of the cases are easily resolved when the luggage is inspected whereas 10% of the cases progress to a detailed and thorough check of their luggage. Recently, 5% of the simple alerts that progressed to a detailed and thorough check of their luggage result in criminal prosecution for an attempt to bring banned substances on board an aircraft, whereas 10% of the serious a lert AND direct immediate-action-warnings subsequently result in criminal prosecutions . Thinking of an alert as level 1, detailed and thorough check of their luggage as level 2, and criminal prosecutions as level 3, please derive and plot the risk profile describing the frequency that different levels (1, 2, 3) are equalled or exceeded. SHOW WORK. 4. (12 points) A large CDC laboratory has a number of technicians who need to fix equipment and solve
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CEE_597_Midterm_2005 - CEE 597 Risk Analysis and Management...

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