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Forecasting - Forecasting Eg.12.3 Periods 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9...

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Forecasting Eg. 12.3 Periods Demand =0.3 α =0.5 α 1 37 - - 37.00 2 40 37.00 37.00 38.86 3 41 37.90 38.50 40.19 4 37 38.83 39.75 38.21 5 45 38.28 38.38 42.42 6 50 40.30 41.69 47.12 7 43 43.21 45.84 44.57 8 47 43.15 44.42 46.07 9 56 44.30 45.71 52.23 10 52 47.81 50.86 52.09 11 55 49.07 51.43 53.89 12 54 50.85 53.21 53.96 13 - 51.79 53.61 557 Eg. 12.4 Periods Demand 1 37 - - 2 40 37.00 0.00 3 41 38.95 0.45 4 37 40.44 0.69 5 45 38.45 0.07 6 50 42.73 1.04 7 43 47.82 1.98 8 47 45.38 0.96 9 56 46.77 1.06 10 52 53.14 2.28 11 55 53.20 1.77 12 54 54.99 1.77 13 - 54.97 1.36 Eg. 12.6 Year 1 2 3 4 Total 2005 12.60 8.60 6.30 17.50 45.00 2006 14.10 10.30 7.50 18.20 50.10 2007 15.30 10.60 8.10 19.60 53.60 Total 42.00 29.50 21.90 55.30 148.70 Si 0.28 0.20 0.15 0.37 SF(2008) 16.43 11.54 8.57 21.63 58.17 Eg. 12.10 AF t+1  at  =0.5 α β =0.3 1 2 3 4 5 6 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
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6 40100 240600 36 1608010000 6 41200 247200 36 1697440000 8 53000 424000 64 2809000000 6 44000 264000 36 1936000000 7 45600 319200 49 2079360000 5 39000 195000 25 1521000000 7 47500 332500 49 2256250000 sum 45 310400 2022500 295 13907060000 bar 5.63 38800
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=0.3 α =0.5 α 3.00 3.00 3.10 2.50 1.83 2.75 6.72 6.63 9.70 8.31 0.21 2.84 3.85 2.58 11.70 10.29 4.19 1.14 5.93 3.57 3.15 0.79 MAD > 4.85 4.04 MAPD> 0.096 0.080 =0.5 α 3.00 2.05 3.44 6.55 7.27 4.82 1.62 9.23 1.14 1.80 0.99 MAD > 3.81 MAPD> 0.075 x y xy x^2 b 4.30 1.0 45.0 45.0 1.0 a 40.97 2.0 50.1 100.2 4.0 3.0 53.6 160.8 9.0 2008 58.17 sum 6.0 148.7 306.0 14.0 bar 2.0 49.6 Error(D t -F t ) Error(D t -F t ) 7 8 9 10 11 12 Column B Column C Column D 7 8 9 10 11 12 Column B Column C
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b 6603.0 r 0.990 a 1658.2 r^2 0.980 x 7 y 47879.1
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Eg. 12.5 x y xy x^2 forecast 1 37 37 1 36.93 0.07 2 40 80 4 38.65 1.35 3 41 123 9 40.37 0.63 4 37 148 16 42.09 5.09 5 45 225 25 43.81 1.19 6 50 300 36 45.53 4.47 7 43 301 49 47.25 4.25 8 47 376 64 48.97 1.97 9 56 504
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  • Spring '11
  • Singh
  • Harshad number, #, 2.00 1000.00 lb, 12.6 Year, 14.1 Quarter, 16.5 28.0 14.4 37.0 12.5 57.0 8.3 39.0 90 194105.56 days

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