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Unformatted text preview: CHAPTER 6FORECASTING MULTIPLE CHOICE 1. A 5% growth trend with annual compounding: a. is a direct estimate of the continuous rate of growth. b. will result in lower final-period sales than would a 5% growth trend with continuous com- pounding. c. will result in greater final-period sales than would a 5% growth trend with continuous compounding. d. implies constant period-by-period unit change in an important economic variable over time. ANS: B 2. A forecast method based on the informed opinion of several individuals is called: a. personal insight. b. panel consensus. c. the Delphi method. d. qualitative analysis. ANS: B 3. A rhythmic annual pattern in sales or profits is called: a. cyclical fluctuation. b. secular trend. c. trend analysis. d. seasonal variation. ANS: D 4. Growth trend analysis assumes: a. constant unit change over time. b. irregular percentage change over time. c. sporadic unit change over time. d. constant percentage change over time. ANS: D 5. Lagging economic indicators include: a. personal income. b. the change in stock prices. c. orders for new plant and equipment. d. the average duration of unemployment. ANS: D 6. The Delphi method: a. employs interaction among experts in the hope that resulting forecasts embody all avail- able objective and subjective information. b. can be influenced by the forceful personality of one or a few key experts. c. employs an independent party to elicit a consensus opinion. d. assumes that several experts arrive at forecasts that are inferior to those that individuals generate. ANS: C 7. A secular trend is the: a. annual pattern in sales or profits caused by weather, habit, or social custom. b. predictable shock to the pace of economic activity caused by wars, strikes, natural cata- strophes, and so on. c. long-run pattern of increase or decrease in a series of economic data. d. rhythmic variation in economic series that is due to expansion or contraction in the overall economy. ANS: C 8. Linear trend analysis assumes: a. constant unit change in an important economic variable over time. b. arithmetic dollar growth. c. geometric dollar growth. d. constant percentage change in an important economic variable over time. ANS: A 9. The forecasting technique least-suited for short term projection is: a. survey analysis. b. barometric analysis. c. time-series analysis of seasonal variations. d. input-output analysis. ANS: D 10. Which of the following forecasting methods is not qualitative? a. survey techniques. b. barometric method. c. expert opinion. d. delphi method. ANS: B 11. Time-series methods: a. use historical data as the basis for projection. b. combine economic theory with mathematical and statistical tools to analyze economic re- lations....
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This note was uploaded on 03/08/2011 for the course ECONABA 635 taught by Professor Leiter during the Summer '10 term at Andrew Jackson.
- Summer '10