Chapter 5

# Chapter 5 - KVANLI PAVUR KEELING Chapter 5 Click to edit...

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Click to edit Master subtitle style 3/10/11 Chapter 5 Probability Concepts KVANLI PAVUR KEELING

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3/10/11 Chapter Objectives At the completion of this chapter, you should be able to answer the following questions: • What is meant by the term "probability"? • How would each of these techniques be used to generate a probability:
3/10/11 Chapter Objectives - Continued At the completion of this chapter, you should be able to answer the following questions: • What is meant by the term joint probability ? • How are multiple events handled?

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3/10/11 Let’s Make a Deal Curtain #1 Curtain #2 Curtain #3 Behind two curtains sits a goat and behind one curtain sits a new Corvette Remember: The host of the show knows what is behind each curtain
3/10/11 Three Questions Question #1: Should you trade (does it make any difference)? Question #2: If you’re a curtain trader, what is the probability of you getting the Corvette? Question #3: If you’re not a curtain

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3/10/11 Question #3 For this situation, all the curtains are closed and you’ll need to pick the curtain with the Corvette behind it Since one curtain out of three has the Corvette, your chances of getting the Corvette are 1 out of 3 We say that this probability is 1/3
3/10/11 Questions #1 and #2 What happens if, on your initial pick (all the curtains are closed), you pick a goat curtain? What must be behind the remaining The curtain you picked – has a goat behind it The remaining curtain

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3/10/11 Questions #1 and #2 The curtain you picked – has a goat behind it Conclusion: If you’re a curtain trader (you will trade curtains when given the offer), all you need to do on the initial pick (with all curtains closed) is pick a goat curtain.
3/10/11 Questions #1 and #2 What are the chances of you picking a goat curtain on your initial pick? Since two of the three curtains are goat curtains, your chances of picking a goat curtain are 2 out of 3 We say that this probability is 2/3 A curtain trader is twice as likely to win the Corvette as a non-curtain

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3/10/11 Summary This was the solution proposed by Marilyn Vos Savant And she’s correct! Many readers wrote to her chewing her out for offering such a lame answer A sample of these comments is
3/10/11 Reader Comments I have been a faithful reader of your column, and I have not, until now, had any reason to doubt you. However, in this matter (for which I do have expertise), your answer is clearly at odds with the truth. James Rauff, Ph.D. Millikin University May I suggest that you obtain and refer to a standard textbook on probability before you try to answer a question of this type again? Charles Reid, Ph.D. University of Florida

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3/10/11 More Comments You are utterly incorrect about the game show question, and I hope this controversy will call some public attention to the serious national crisis in mathematical education. If you can admit your error, you will have contributed constructively towards the solution of a deplorable situation. How many irate mathematicians are needed to
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Chapter 5 - KVANLI PAVUR KEELING Chapter 5 Click to edit...

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