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Unformatted text preview: Informal Reasoning Evaluate information based on believability of evidence Heuristic: Time-saving mental shortcuts Anchoring Representativeness Availability Anchoring Estimates made by adjusting from a starting value Bargaining and haggling (e.g. buying a car) Representativeness Judgments are based on which examples best fit expectations Ignore the base rate How typical does the example seem rather than how likely it is Availability Heuristic Judgments are based on which comes to mind most readily Frequency confused for probability Media & TV coverage Mass hysteria about low probability events Flying after 9/11 Formal vs. Informal Reasoning Formal Reasoning Applying rigorous procedures to reach valid conclusion Guided by algorithms and rules Example: Math, physics, etc. Informal Reasoning Trying to assess believability Reach a conclusion on basis of specific facts Example: A jurys verdict Many types of problems Problem Solving Incubation Means-end analysis Working Backwards Using analogy Incubation Put a problem aside for a while and come back to it later e.g. sleep Why might this work? Formal vs. Informal Reasoning Formal Reasoning Applying rigorous procedures to reach valid conclusion Guided by algorithms and rules Example: Math,...
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- Spring '09