China_etal_MIIS_DRH

China_etal_MIIS_DRH - China’s Growth and Sustainability...

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Unformatted text preview: China’s Growth and Sustainability Challenges: Global Implications David Roland-Holst Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics College of Natural Resources UC Berkeley [email protected] Monterey Institute of International Studies Monterey, California February 21, 2011 Roland-Holst 2 Contents 1. Global Overview – Emerging economies and global growth 2. China and India 3. China Two Ways 1. Energy 2. Food 21 February 2011 Roland-Holst 3 1. Global Overview • The landscape of the global economy will change rapidly in the coming decades • New growth will be dominated by large emerging economies in Asia and Latin America (BRICs) • These tectonic shifts in demand will be accompanied by an intensification of global resource use. 21 February 2011 Roland-Holst 4 Modern Growth Experience: Generally positive but highly variable 21 February 2011 Source: World Bank(2008) Roland-Holst 5 Poverty Rates Have Fallen Significantly, but Africa is Generally Worse Off 21 February 2011 Source: World Bank, WDR (2006) Roland-Holst 6 China and India Compared 21 February 2011 Roland-Holst 7 Structure of Growth 21 February 2011 Roland-Holst 8 Domestic Financial Resources 21 February 2011 Roland-Holst 9 Investment Climate 21 February 2011 Roland-Holst 10 Infrastructure 21 February 2011 Roland-Holst 11 Human Resources Both countries have made important progress in education, but it differs in the most growth relevant categories: 21 February 2011 Adult Literacy Youth Literacy Children to Grade 5 1985 ‐ 1995a 1995 ‐ 2005b 1985 ‐ 1995a 1995 ‐ 2005b 2005 China 78 91 94 99 86 India 48 61 62 76 73 Source: United Nations Roland-Holst 12 Financial Capital These institutional factors have led to divergent levels inbound investment. As of 2007, both the stock and flow of China’s FDI were over ten times that of India. This source of external capital is essential for three things: 1.To overcome savings/credit constraints 2.Technology transfer 3.Market access through partnership 21 February 2011 Roland-Holst 13 Annual FDI Inflows (US$ million) Rank Host Economy 1991 ‐ 95 Rank Host Economy 2001 ‐ 05 1 PRC 22,835 1 PRC 57,232 2 Singapore 6,373 2 Hong Kong, China 23,402 3 H o n g Kong, China 5,176 3 Singapore 13,653 4 Malaysia 5,064 4 India 5,551 5 Indonesia 2,342 5 Korea, Rep. of 5,145 6 Thailand 1,889 6 Malaysia 2,964 7 Taipei,China 1,200 7 Kazakhstan 2,674 8 Philippines 1,124 8 Thailand 2,377 9 V i e t Nam 1,100 9 Azerbaijan 2,028 10 Korea, Rep. of 857 10 Taipei,China 1,906 Roland-Holst 14 hina and India in a Global Context (monthly household income per capita, 1993PPP$) 21 February 2011 The World Bank estimates that China’s progress across the global income distribution will be relatively inequality- neutral....
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This note was uploaded on 03/18/2011 for the course ECON 162 taught by Professor Hanemann during the Spring '07 term at Berkeley.

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China_etal_MIIS_DRH - China’s Growth and Sustainability...

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