23 - The Economy of China Economics 162 Topic 9...

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Economics 162 The Economy of China Topic 9 – Demographics and Labor Professor David Roland-Holst Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics Tuesday and Thursday, 11-1230p, 10 Evans Hall
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Roland-Holst 2 Special Demographic Features 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 Birth and Death Rates (Per Thousand) Birth Rate Death Rate
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Roland-Holst 3 Economics 162 Special Demographic Characteristics 1. Sustained decline of death rates at lower income levels, the majority in a large country 2. Sustained decline of birth rates due to government policy of family planning after 1970 – 1971: later, longer, fewer – 1980: One child policy to a target of 1.2 billion in 2000 (actually reached in 1995) – Exceptions: minority groups, rural/gender
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Roland-Holst 4 Dependency Rates of Young and Old
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Roland-Holst 5 Economics 162 Age Structure of the Population • Present situation – High working age population and low dependency rates for both young and old dependents – Share of population of ages 15-64 is very high China 67% Low income countries 57% Middle-income countries 62% – Opposite of Japan
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Roland-Holst 6 Economics 162 Age Structure of the Population • Near Future (till 2015) – The trend continues (the share of working age population increase to 70% before decline) • Longer term (from 2015 on) – The trend reverses
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Roland-Holst 7 Economics 162 Economic Implications • Dual problems – In the immediate future: Serious unemployment risk, job creation is a primary concern – In the distant future: Serious pension problem, how to finance it and provide support services
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This note was uploaded on 03/18/2011 for the course ECON 196 taught by Professor Pierre during the Spring '10 term at Berkeley.

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23 - The Economy of China Economics 162 Topic 9...

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