The Economic Situation inEM - The new world: Emerging...

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Think Tank of Deutsche Bank Group The new world: Emerging markets after the crisis April 2010 Maria Laura Lanzeni Head of Emerging Markets
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2 Country typology and medium-term outlook 1 Emerging markets roaring back from the crisis Agenda Page 2 M. Lanzeni - April 2010
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1 Emerging markets roaring back from the crisis A strong recovery in output and trade Page 3 M. Lanzeni - April 2010 70 90 110 130 150 170 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Central and Eastern Europe Africa and Middle East Latin America Asia Euro Area United States Source: CPB Trade volumes rise sharply in EMs 2005=100 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 GDP growth bounces back Real GDP*, % yoy Source: DB Research *EM aggregate, GDP-weighted.
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1 Emerging markets roaring back from the crisis EM financial markets are rallying Page 4 M. Lanzeni - April 2010 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2007 2008 2009 2010 Morgan Stanley Capital International Index Stock markets on the rise Source: Bloomberg 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 EMBI global sov. bond spread, bp over UST Bond spreads decline sharply Source: DB Global Markets
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1 Emerging markets roaring back from the crisis EM currencies have strengthened again Page 5 M. Lanzeni - April 2010 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Jan 07 May 07 Sep 07 Jan 08 May 08 Sep 08 Jan 09 May 09 Sep 09 Jan 10 KRW PLN RUB BRL MXN EUR Dramatic plunge and recovery in Q4/08 – Q1/09 Exchange rates vs. USD, index Jan 2007=100 Sources: IHS Global Insight, DB Research
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1 Emerging markets roaring back from the crisis Past fundamental improvements have made EM resilient Page 6 M. Lanzeni - April 2010 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Public debt Fiscal balance Primary balance Pre-crisis, EM had balanced budget Emerging markets aggregate, % of GDP Source: DB Research 15 20 25 30 35 40 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 FX reserve accumulation, since 2000, USD bn (left) External debt, % of GDP (right)
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This note was uploaded on 03/18/2011 for the course MARKETING 102 taught by Professor Vhoof during the Spring '11 term at International School of Management, New York.

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The Economic Situation inEM - The new world: Emerging...

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