285%2Bchap03-c

285%2Bchap03-c - Statistics: Chapter 3 Probability Chap 4-1...

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Chap 4-1 Statistics: Chapter 3 Probability
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Chap 4-2 Important Terms Probability – the chance that an uncertain event will occur (always between 0 and 1) Experiment – a process of obtaining outcomes for uncertain events, e Experimental Outcome – the most basic outcome possible from a simple experiment Sample Space – the collection of all possible experimental outcomes Event – collection of elementary events
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Chap 4-3 Sample Space The Sample Space is the collection of all possible outcomes e.g., All 6 faces of a die: e.g., All 52 cards of a bridge deck:
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Chap 4-4 Events Experimental outcome – An outcome from a sample space with one characteristic Example: A red card from a deck of cards Event – May involve two or more outcomes simultaneously Example: An ace that is also red from a deck of cards
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Chap 4-5 Visualizing Events Contingency Tables Tree Diagrams Red 2 24 26 Black 2 24 26 Total 4 48 52 Ace Not Ace Total Full Deck of 52 Cards Red Card Black Card Not an Ace Ace Sample Space Sample Space 2 24 2 24
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Chap 4-6 Experimental Outcomes A automobile consultant records fuel type and vehicle type for a sample of vehicles 2 Fuel types: Gasoline, Diesel 3 Vehicle types: Truck, Car, SUV 6 possible experimental outcomes: e 1 Gasoline, Truck e 2 Gasoline, Car e 3 Gasoline, SUV e 4 Diesel, Truck e 5 Diesel, Car e 6 Diesel, SUV Gasoline Diesel Car Truck Car SUV e 1 e 2 e 3 e 4 e 5 e 6
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Chap 4-7 Probability Concepts Mutually Exclusive Events If E 1 occurs, then E 2 cannot occur E 1 and E 2 have no common elements Black Cards Red Cards A card cannot be Black and Red at the same time. E 1 E 2
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Chap 4-8 Independent and Dependent Events Independent: Occurrence of one does not influence the probability of occurrence of the other Dependent: Occurrence of one affects the probability of the other Probability Concepts
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Chap 4-9 Independent Events E 1 = heads on one flip of fair coin E 2 = heads on second flip of same coin Result of second flip does not depend on the result of the first flip. Dependent Events E 1 = rain forecasted on the news E 2 = take umbrella to work Probability of the second event is affected by the occurrence of the first event Independent vs. Dependent Events
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Chap 4-10 Assigning Probability Classical Probability Assessment Relative Frequency of Occurrence Subjective Probability Assessment P(E i ) = Number of ways E i can occur Total number of experimental outcomes Relative Freq. of E i = Number of times E i occurs N An opinion or judgment by a decision maker about the likelihood of an event
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285%2Bchap03-c - Statistics: Chapter 3 Probability Chap 4-1...

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