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工程统计学å&re

工程统计学å&re

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工程统计学实验报告 5080209017 梅海旭 一,实验目的 1 用统计理论的方法去收集和使用带随机性影响的数据,从而能推断与预测所考察的问题。 2 )能运用统计理论方法解决工程管理问题。 3 )能利用统计信息掌握工程活动的实际运行状况并进行有效的工程管理决策。 二,实验任务及要求 1 )确定具体研究或考察的问题。 2 )确定数据收集方法,并进行数据收集和统计。 3 )利用统计软件(如 Minitab Excel 统计分析工具等)提供的分析方法收集、整理和分析数据。 4 )在数据分析的基础上对所研究的问题给出结论。 三,实验内容 实验一 上海市历年 GDP 指标 年份 GDP 人均 GDP( ) GDP( 亿元 ) 占全国比重 增幅 (%) 全国 上海 本币 美元 比重 (%) 位次 全国 上海 ( 本币 ) 本币 美元 1978 272.81 162 7.84 1 11.7 15.8 381 2,497 1,483 1979 286.43 184.2 7.6 7.4 419 2,568 1,651 1980 311.89 208.2 7.27 2 7.8 8.4 463 2,737 1,827 1981 324.76 190.48 5.2 5.6 492 2,813 1,650 1982 337.07 178.06 9.1 7.2 528 2,877 1,520 1983 351.81 178.04 10.9 7.8 583 2,963 1,499 1984 390.85 168.47 5.48 5 15.2 11.6 695 3,259 1,405 1985 466.75 158.92 5.42 5 13.5 13.4 858 3,855 1,313 1986 490.83 142.15 5.08 7 8.9 4.4 963 4,008 1,161 1987 545.46 146.55 4.75 7 11.6 7.5 1,112 4,396 1,181 1988 648.3 174.18 4.47 9 11.3 10.1 1,366 5,162 1,387 1989 696.54 185 4.22 10 4.1 3 1,519 5,487 1,457 1990 781.66 163.42 4.23 10 3.8 3.5 1,644 6,107 1,277 1991 893.77 167.91 4.21 10 9.2 7.1 1,893 6,954 1,306 1992 1,114.32 202.02 4.29 9 14.2 14.8 2,311 8,650 1,568 1993 1,519.23 263.66 4.44 8 14 15.1 2,998 10,729 1,862 1994 1,990.86 230.99 4.39 9 13.1 14.5 4,044 13,807 1,602 1995 2,499.43 299.3 4.35 8 10.9 14.3 5,046 17,022 2,038 1996 2,957.55 355.73 4.37 8 10 13.1 5,846 19,779 2,379 1997 3,438.79 414.81 4.51 8 9.3 12.8 6,420 22,583 2,724 1998 3,801.09 459.12 4.61 8 7.8 10.3 6,796 24,513 2,961 1999 4,188.73 506.01 4.75 7 7.6 10.4 7,159 26,527 3,205 2000 4,771.17 576.3 4.85 7 8.4 11 7,858 29,671 3,584 2001 5,210.12 629.47 4.8 7 8.3 10.5 8,622 32,201 3,890 2002 5,741.03 693.61 4.76 7 9.1 11.3 9,398 35,329 4,268 2003 6,694.23 808.77 4.81 7 10 12.3 10,542 39,128 4,727 2004 8,072.83 975.33 4.82 7 10.1 14.2 12,336 46,338 5,598 2005 9,247.66 1,128.91 4.64 7 11.3 11.4 14,185 52,535 6,413 2006 10,572.24 1,325.92 4.54 7 12.7 12.7 16,500 58,837 7,379
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上海历年 GDP 数据 * 数据来源:维基百科《中国统计年鉴》 - 《上海统计年鉴》;上海市市政府网站 http://www.shanghai.gov.cn/shanghai/node2314/index.html 使用 minitab 软件绘图,作出趋势图 1 )上海 GDP 趋势图( 1990-2009[20 ] 2010 2005 2000 1995 1990 2010 2005 2000 1995 1990 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 年份 上海 GDP (亿美元) Scatterplot of 上海 GDP (亿美元) vs 年份 2 )上海人均 GDP 趋势图( 1990-2009[20 ] 2010 2005 2000 1995 1990 2010 2005 2000 1995 1990 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 年份 上海人均 GDP (美元) Scatterplot of 上海人均 GDP (美元) vs 年份 2007 12,494.01 1,661.11 4.47 7 14.2 15.2 20,169 68,024 9,044 2008 14,069.87 2,025.87 4.22 7 9.6 9.7 23,708 75,109 10,815 2009 15,046.45 2,202.67 4.12 8 9.1 8.2 25,575 78,989 11,563
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分析历史数据,找出趋势线方程,利用 minitab 软件趋势分析, Trend Analysis 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Index 上海 GDP (亿美元) Intercept 147.78 Asymptote -2777.39 Asym. Rate 0.90 Curve Parameters MAPE 4.88 MAD 31.91 MSD 2022.73 Accuracy Measures Actual Fits
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