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2103-CHAP 3 Sept 24, 27, 29, Oct 1, 4 CLASS NOTES FALL 2010

# 2103-CHAP 3 Sept 24, 27, 29, Oct 1, 4 CLASS NOTES FALL 2010...

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Sec 3.1: Events Sample Spaces, and Probability Experiment: an act or process of observation that leads to a single outcome Sample Point: the most basic outcome of an experiment Sample Space of an experiment is the collection of all its sample points Probability Rules for Sample Points: 1) All sample point probabilities must lie between zero and 1.00 2) Sum of the probabilities of all sample points must be 1.00 Event is a specific collection of Sample Points Simple Event contains only a single sample point Compound event contains two or more sample points Combination Rule: N! a sample n!(N-n)! from a c Intro to Probability Ranges from Zero to 100%; Zero means certain not to occur a probability of 100%, certain to occur Types of Probability Simple (marginal) Union between 2 events Conditional Probabilities Joint Probabiliites (intersection of events) Testing for Independence of 2 Events (e.g., is there a relationship between d Simple Probability: aka, "marginal" probability Complementary Events The Complement of Event A is the event that A does not occur, A + Ac = 1.0 The Rule of Complements: P(A) + P(Ac) = 1.0000

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Mutually Exclusive Events Collectively Exhaustive Events Union makes use of the Additive Rule (aka, addition rule) Union of two events for Mutually Exclusive Events for Non-Mutually Exclusive Events Intersection of two events when using Contingency Tables Sec 3.5 Conditional Probability Discussion of Absolute Differences vs Relative Differences When Small "Absolute" differences may cover up rather large "Relative" dif e.g., relative risk of side effects from a Health Care Product (produc (0.001) vs (0.005) Finding Intersection of 2 events from Joint Probability Table (Makes use of for Independent Events for Dependent Events Testing for Independence of 2 Events (e.g., is there a relationship between d
e that cannot be predicted with certainty le of "n" elements is to be drawn omplete set of "N" elements demographic and brand choice)? 0000

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ifferences ct group vs placebo) Multiplicative Rule, aka, multiplication Rule) demographic and brand choice)?
Table Format Known as "Contingency Table," Row by Column Format Simple Q1. What is your Gender? Q2. Which is your "favorite" brand? Union Intersection This Tabular format, Contingency Table, allows us to answer the question, Conditional "Is Brand Choice related to Demographic?" Test of Indep (Contingency Table) COFFEE CHOICE Row Q1Gen Gender Wa(A1) Dunk(A2) Star(A3) 711(A4) Totals 1 (B1)Female 25 20 20 4 69 2 (B2)Male 14 22 5 10 51 1 ColTotal 39 42 25 14 120 0.3250 0.3500 0.2083 0.1167 1.0000 Simple Probability (aka, Marginal Probability) P(Event) = Marginal Total div by Grand Total Probability of a Single Event What is the probability we select someone at random, and they prefer "711"? P(711) = (column total for 711) div by (Grand Total) =

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2103-CHAP 3 Sept 24, 27, 29, Oct 1, 4 CLASS NOTES FALL 2010...

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