demog - GEODEMOGRAPHY GEODEMOGRAPHY the power of numbers We...

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Unformatted text preview: GEODEMOGRAPHY GEODEMOGRAPHY the power of numbers We are all drops in the ocean … We There are now about 6.7 billion people on There the planet (Oct. 2008) the If you shook hands with people, night and If day, for the rest of your life you could only meet about 1/5 of the people on the planet (assuming handshakes last 2 seconds) (assuming In short, get a different job! Global Population Distribution Global Megalopolis Haiti/ Dominican Republic Nile valley Java Buenos Aires Ecological aspect of population density population Sparse populations Sparse Some places too cold, too dry, too Some rocky, etc. rocky, Sparse rural settlement: Iceland Sparse rural settlement: Iceland Dense populations Dense Often in areas with good soils, Often ample rainfall, and water access ample Southeast Asian rice paddy agriculture rice Dense urban settlement Ecological basis of population density becomes less and less meaningful with time because of: • • Urbanization International flows of goods, people, & money International division of labor • How useful is a table or map of birthrates? map Births per minute Births U.K.: U.K.: Japan: Japan: Russia: Russia: U.S.: U.S.: Nigeria: Nigeria: Pakistan: China: China: India: India: 1 2 3 8 8 10 38 48 Not very useful! Births and Deaths per minute Births Russia: Russia: Japan: Japan: U.K.: U.K.: U.S.: U.S.: Nigeria: Nigeria: Pakistan: Pakistan: China: China: India: India: 3 births - 4 deaths = 2 births - 2 deaths = 1 birth - 1 death = 8 births - 4 deaths = 8 births - 3 deaths = 10 births - 3 deaths = 38 births - 16 deaths = 48 births - 17 deaths = -1 0 0 4 5 7 22 22 31 31 Somewhat useful … what could make it even Somewhat more useful? more Annual Natural Change of Population What can we learn from this map? What can’t we learn? Total Fertility Rate Total A better measure. What can’t we learn from TFR? Is Global Population Growth a Problem? Problem? “No, the world has more than enough No, resources if they are divided fairly” resources The planet can physically support more than The 10 billion people as long as they all share nicely. nicely. People are willing to share the resources they People have, especially with strangers. have, Assumptions: Assumptions: an optimistic view! an Let’s Get Real … Let’s Whereas the U.S. currently uses 25% of the Whereas world’s resources … world’s And whereas the other 95% of the world would And have to consume something like 5 times as much as they do now in order to equal our level, much And whereas their definition of an “adequate” And standard of living is not far below our own … standard The current growth of population is a problem. Whose Problem is it? Whose If the poor countries develop over the next If century to our levels of resource consumption, then the total rate of resource exhaustion, ecological disruption, and pollution will be about 10 times higher than today. 10 If the poor countries do not develop over the If do next century but continue to double in population every four decades, then we will have to deal with massive social unrest stemming from abject poverty, waves of poor immigrants, desperate refugees, epidemics, and political chaos. refugees, No other country has as many resources to deal No with the problem as the US with It will be our problem whether we want it or not! Current Migration Flows Current Total Fertility Rate Total Zone of economic Zone insecurity insecurity Why do insecure people have more children? children? Often they are rural They seldom have access to the equivalent of They welfare, social security, Medicare, and Medicaid Medicaid Often they are members of oppressed ethnic Often groups groups Their world is quite different from the world we Their live in (religion, sex roles, economy, age roles, pass-times, access to contraception, knowledge about family planning, knowledge about children’s health, etc.) about Consequences of these considerations: considerations: Children are useful in Children agricultural economies starting around 8 yrs. old around When children (at least male When children) grow up they are expected to support their parents Leaders in oppressed ethnic Leaders groups often advocate large families because they recognize the power of numbers (a minority that grows enough will no longer be a minority) be What are the consequences? What People in many poor capitalist countries are People faced with a highly uncertain future faced Periodic food shortages Lack of employment Political instability and inadequate policing Diseases caused by lack of adequate sanitation Diseases caused by industrial pollution Lack of health care They “insure” themselves by having more They children than we consider “sensible” children At the individual level, their actions are sensible Population pyramids Population What they are and what they can What tell us about society & culture in different places different Average Age Average Why are the Europeans so old? Why are the Africans so young? Demographic Transition Demographic What causes the demographic transition? transition? Urbanization Education Secularization Shift from subsistence to market economy Government policies (in some cases) What is the effect of the demographic transition? demographic During Population growth Migration Urbanization Persistence of traditional unequal gender roles Conflict over social values and lifestyles Economic development Decline of conflicts over land More egalitarian construction of gender roles & More identities identities After Immigration to the U.S. Western European wave Southern and Eastern European wave Asian and Latin American wave Immigration waves Immigration Timing of immigration waves Reflects the diffusion of the demographic transition from Reflects Western Europe towards the east and south, then to other parts of the world of This is the most complex diffusion process we have encountered • What is diffusing is not an artifact but a culture complex • The essence of this diffusion the spatial expansion of a process of The demographic change demographic • The impact on the US has been to re-define what it means to be The “American” from a time when “White” meant English and/or German (and specifically not Irish, Italian, or Greek), to a time when “White” means of any European background (specifically not Asian, African (“one drop”) or Hispanic) (“one • Future re-definition of “White”? • Abandonment of the term altogether? Male-Female Ratio Male-Female What might cause a surplus of males or females? Females are less than 50% in some countries because: some Where girls are fewer it is usually because of: Selective abortion Infanticide Deliberate neglect Favoring boys nutritionally All can be exacerbated by political and economic All factors factors Also, men may dominate population when Also, women’s natural longevity is negated by women’s Early childbirth Frequent childbirth Lack of obstetric care 20,000,000 Missing girls Diagram is not completely accurate Is the child in the poster (promoting China’s one-child policy) a boy or a girl? Factors affecting demographic patterns (complex causality) patterns Marriage age Women’s education Access to means of birth control Government policy Religion Inter-group conflict Economics Disease Language Average Marriage Age for Women Average Japan: Japan: 26 25 16 10-12 U.S.: U.S.: Mali & Niger Hausa people living in Nigeria and Niger What impact do you think marriage age has: age On infant mortality? On family size? On women’s status in society? On women’s educational level? On health and disease levels? Infant Mortality Infant If you could do one thing to reduce infant mortality what would it be? Education of Women Education Lowers TFR (and thus improves child care) by improving Lowers the effectiveness of birth control the Lowers TFR (and thus improves child care) by reducing Lowers the need to have a boy as “insurance” against poverty in old age old Lowers maternal mortality rates (and thus improves child Lowers care) by delaying the onset of childbearing Lowers maternal mortality making it easier for women to Lowers leave abusive and/or promiscuous husbands (nutrition, child care, and AIDS diffusion are affected) child Lowers infant mortality and maternal mortality by Lowers and improving women’s ability to access a wide range of information on medicine, hygiene, and nutrition information Contraception Contraception Muslim countries have low contraception rates but do not have high HIV infection rates. Why? What would you predict about AIDS in Thailand? “Mexico City Policy” No US funds (USAID) are given to NGOs No operating in foreign countries if they use any any funds (even non-US funds) to provide abortions (excluding cases of rape, incest, & medical emergencies), or counsel about abortion, or emergencies) even if they lobby to keep abortion legal even This caters to a segment of the American public This but overlooks the conditions under which women in other countries live in Role of religion Role Lays down standards pertaining to Lays reproduction, but people respond to these standards in complex ways… standards Catholics don’t always listen to the Pope the Political conditions Political were more important than religious factors in shaping the demographic pattern in Europe in 1910. Europe The linguistic barrier The was subsequently overcome by diffusion of cultural practices associated with a lower birthrate. birthrate. French were French comparatively rare in the migrations of the late 19th and early 20th late centuries. centuries. The role of social conflict and oppression oppression People in oppressed minorities nearly People always recognize that they would not be oppressed if they were not a minority. oppressed Solution? Have lots of kids! Quebec’s “Revenge of the Cradles” (La Revanche des Berceaux) (La 38 32 Catholic Church saw numbers as the key to survival Strategy called “la survivance” Ended when three things changed (1960s): Ended Francophones got more power in Federal government Catholic Church lost power in Quebec Birth rate plummeted Palestinians Palestinians Gaza Strip’s population will quadruple to 4.8 Gaza million by 2050, West Bank is growing almost as fast fast Palestinians will outnumber Israelis by 2036 Considering lack of jobs and lack of arable land, Considering this will create massive dependency on foreign aid unless these areas somehow become booming industrial centers like Hong Kong or Singapore Singapore Children growing up with no hope of leading a Children happy life are coached to die a martyr’s death happy When will this unsustainable situation change? The role of economics The Role of Disease on Population The Disease’s role is not always predictable Often people’s response to epidemic Often disease is to “insure” themselves by having more children having For example, although the HIV infection For rate in some African countries is more than one in three, the African population is expected to double in 40 years. expected New AIDS Cases per year New Effect of sextourism industry Effect of various social factors and poverty Impacts of AIDS on life expectancy Impacts Life expectancy in Lesotho has fallen from 60 years in Life 1990-1995 to 34 years in 2005-2010 1990-1995 Bahamas, Kampuchea, Dominican Republic, Haiti and Bahamas, Myanmar are facing declines in life expectancy due to AIDS AIDS AIDS hits people in the prime of life, increasing the AIDS dependency ratio and disrupting the economic stability of a country country This in turn can cause malnutrition and reduces childcare and education, thereby reducing life expectancy UNAIDS 2006 Global Report on the AIDS Epidemic Factors Aggravating the Spread of AIDS AIDS Sexism Poverty Rape Prostitution Married men visiting Married prostitutes prostitutes Failure to seek treatment Husband-wife transmission Husband-wife because of attempt to hide or deny infection deny Mother-child transmission because of fear of testing False cures Government denial Stigmatization Lack of access to birth control Lack of access to condoms Lack of access to counseling Lack of access to medicine Lack of access to education Human trafficking and Human exploitation exploitation Misinformation The Role of Nutrition The Does vegetarianism lead to protein deficits? Textbook suggests a tie to rice consumption What could you infer from this map of language families? of SUMMARY SUMMARY Many different measures of population need to be understood: Many population density, birth rate, death rate, TFR, and natural increase population Population growth reflects many causal factors: level of Population urbanization, point in shift to capitalism, nutrition, attitudes about gender and sexuality, access to birth control, social conflicts, ethnic relations, and overall level of security relations, TFR is often lowered by factors that, in the short term, increase the TFR increase rate of natural increase (such as public health measures) rate TFR is often raised by factors that, in the short term, decrease the TFR decrease rate of natural increase (such as epidemic disease and famine) rate Top-down control over human reproduction, like in China, can have Top-down negative results such as female infanticide and increased oppression of women oppression In short, we must be cautious to jump to conclusions about In population dynamics based on first impressions and guesses population ...
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This note was uploaded on 03/31/2011 for the course GRG 305 taught by Professor Adams during the Spring '08 term at University of Texas at Austin.

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