Government - Paper POLS 1101 12/1/10 I. Title (article 1) A...

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Paper POLS 1101 12/1/10 I. Title (article 1) – A Forecast That Obama Could Love Author – Jeff Sommer Source – New York Times Date – 11/20/10 Summary – The article details the research behind a prominent Yale economist’s prediction that President Obama will be reelected in 2012, based almost solely on the prospect of a rebounding economy. Historically, economic trends have had an enormous impact upon national elections. Ray Fair, the aforementioned economist, predicts that the economy will have strengthened considerably by 2012, and that the incumbent Obama will win as a result. The data behind this prediction is abundant. The Federal Reserve has enacted policies to keep interest rates low and asset prices high. Although the housing market may take years to fully recover from the crisis of 2008, the stock market has already made strong gains. Fair’s model also predicts sizable percentage increases in GDP, which he says will correlate strongly with election outcomes. Although the prediction is by no means rock solid, Fair successfully predicted the 2008 election on the same basis.
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II. Title (article 2) – Predicting the Economy, and Obama’s Re-Election Chances Author – Nate Silver Source – New York Times (blog) Date – 11/22/10 Summary – The second article is effectively a summary and critique of the previous article. While the second author agrees with the main point of Ray Fair’s prediction (the fact
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This note was uploaded on 04/04/2011 for the course HISTORY 1101 taught by Professor Staff during the Fall '10 term at Georgia State University, Atlanta.

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Government - Paper POLS 1101 12/1/10 I. Title (article 1) A...

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