Earthquake Prediction 11 (1)

Earthquake Prediction 11 (1) - If determinism is in fact...

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Where When How big Probability
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Deterministic Search for precursors Physical Basis e.g. dilatancy Statistical What are the chances….
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There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics. - Benjamin Disraeli, attributed by Mark Twain, 1924
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http://wwwneic.cr.usgs.gov/neis/general/seismicity/world.html
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http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/general/seismicity/us_west.html http://geohazards.cr.usgs.gov/eq/hazmaps/CAmap1rs.gif Seismicity Risk
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http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/general/seismicity/us.html http://geohazards.cr.usgs.gov/eq/2002October/US/USpga500v3.gif Seismicity Seismic Risk
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http://geopubs.wr.usgs.gov/open-file/of99-517/
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Unformatted text preview: If determinism is in fact true, then our whole conception of morality is a pointless illusion.-http://www.counterbalance.org σ 1 σ 3 microfractures Death Toll Tangshan 655,000 (unofficial) Haicheng, 1975 Tangshan, 1976 M = 7.8 M = 7.3 SAFOD http://earthquake.usgs.gov/research/geology/turkey/index.php Up to 45,000 dead 45,000 injured Mw = 7.4 http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/research/deformation/modeling/animations/index.html For really neat animations, go to this USGS web site: SAFOD Toda and Stein GPS Landers, 1992 What can we really do? http://www.elarms.org/...
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This note was uploaded on 04/03/2011 for the course EAS 1220 taught by Professor Brown during the Spring '08 term at Cornell.

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Earthquake Prediction 11 (1) - If determinism is in fact...

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