quant anaylisis - 2. Nation Scan, Inc., sells radio...

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2. Nation Scan, Inc., sells radio frequency inventory tags. Monthly sales for a seven- month period were as follows: Month Sales (000 units) Feb. 19 March 18 April 15 May 20 June 18 July 22 Aug 20 a. plot the monthly data on a excel sheet b. forecast September sales volume using each of the following: 1. A linear trend equation 2. a five- month moving average. 3. exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to .20, assuming a march forecast of 19(000). 4. The naïve approach 5. a weighted average using .60 for August, .30 for July, and .10 for june c. which method seems least appropriate? Why? (refer to your plot from part a) d. what does use of the term sales rather than demand presume? 3. A dry cleaner uses exponential smoothing to forecast equipment usage at its main plant. August usage was forecast to be 88percent of capacity; actual usage was 89.6 percent of capacity. A smoothing constant of .1 is used. a. prepare a forecast for September. b. assuming actual September usage of 92 percent, prepare a forecast for October usage. 7. freight car loadings over a 12-year period at a busy port are as follows. Week Number Week Number Week Number 1 220 7 350 13 460 2 245 8 260 14 475 3 208 9 400 15 500 4 275 10 380 16 510 5 300 11 420 17 525 6 310 12 450 18 541 a. determine a linear trend line for expected freight car loadings. b. Use the trend equation to predict the expected loadings for 20 and 21 c. The manager intends to install new equipment when the volume exceeds 800 loadings per week. Assuming the current trend continues, the loading volume will reach that level in approximately what week?
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21. Two different forecasting techniques (F1 and F2) were used to forecast demand for cases of bottled water. Actual demand and the two sets of forecasts are as follows: PREDICTED DEMAND Period Demand F1 F2 1 68 66 66 2 75 68 68 3 70 72 70 4 74 71 72 5 69 72 74 6 72 70 76 7 80 71 78 8 78 74 80 a. Compute MAD for each set of forecasts. Given your results, which forecast appears to be more accurate? Explain b. Compute the MSE for each set of forecasts. Given your results, which forecast appears to be more accurate? c. In practice, either MAD or MSE would be employed to compute forecast errors. What factors might lead a manager to choose one rather than the other? d. Compute MAPE for each data set. Which forecast appears to be more accurate? 25. The Manager of a seafood restaurant was asked to establish a pricing policy on a lobster dinners. Experimenting with prices produced the following data: Average Number Average Number Sold per Day, Y Price, X Sold per Day, Y Price, X 200 $6.00 155 $8.25 195 6.50 156 8.50 188 6.75 148 8.75 180 7.00 140 9.00 170 7.25 133 9.25 162 7.50 160 8.00 a. Plot the data and a regression line on the same graph. b.
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This note was uploaded on 04/04/2011 for the course ACCOUNTING 301 taught by Professor Mr.smith during the Spring '11 term at Cleveland State CC.

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quant anaylisis - 2. Nation Scan, Inc., sells radio...

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