# lecture3.add - Which model does the God use Consider the...

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Which model does the God use? Consider the experiment when two dice are tossed. If the dice are identifiable, the sample space has 36 sample points. If the dice are not-identifiable, the sample space has 21 points. If each outcome is equally likely, what is the probability that the outcome is (1, 1)? () January 13, 2011 1 / 17

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Which model does the God use? Assuming identifiability: the answer is 1/36 = 2.8%; Assuming non-identifiability: the answer is 1/21 = 4.8%; () January 13, 2011 2 / 17
Which model does the God use? Assuming identifiability: the answer is 1/36 = 2.8%; Assuming non-identifiability: the answer is 1/21 = 4.8%; We may reveal this secrete by experimentation. () January 13, 2011 2 / 17

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Which model does the God use? Help to toss the pair of dice 20 times, and keep a record of how many times the outcome is (1, 1); and how many times the sum is 4. Give it to student behind you to repeat it again. My calculation indicates that we need about 1000 tosses to be able to tell a difference of 1%. Let us work hard. () January 13, 2011 3 / 17
Dancing party problem Ten boys brought their girlfriends to have a party. When the music starts, each boy randomly invited a girl to dance. What is the probability that none of them were dancing with his own girlfriend? () January 13, 2011 4 / 17

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Dancing party problem By randomly inviting, we assumed that each girl is equally likely to dance with each of the ten boys.
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