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DSCI4520_ModelComparison_3

DSCI4520_ModelComparison_3 - DSCI 4520/5240 DATA MINING...

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Lecture 3 - 1 DSCI 4520/5240 DATA MINING Some slide material taken from: Cerrito, SAS Education DSCI 4520/5240 Lecture 3 Comparing Models DSCI 4520/5240 DBDSS (DATA MINING)

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Lecture 3 - 2 DSCI 4520/5240 DATA MINING Objectives Present various charts used to compare models. Explain how these charts are created
Lecture 3 - 3 DSCI 4520/5240 DATA MINING Creating Model Assessment charts Steps: Using the model, produce estimated probabilities for the target event for each case Sort all cases by decreasing estimated probability. If the model is good, cases where the target event actually shows up should have higher estimated probabilities, therefore should end up higher in the list Split the cases into, say 10 bins, so that Bin #1 has the highest probabilities, and Bin #10 the lowest probabilities Now look at the number of cases where the target event actually happens. These are shown as blue balls in the next graph

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Lecture 3 - 4 DSCI 4520/5240 DATA MINING Creating Model Assessment charts Predicted probabilities, estimated using the model we are trying to assess Actually observed values of the target variable
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DSCI4520_ModelComparison_3 - DSCI 4520/5240 DATA MINING...

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