Unformatted text preview: rmation Bias – seeking out information that reaffirms our past choices and discounting information that contradicts past judgments Common Biases and Errors Availability Bias – the tendency to base judgments on information that is readily available Representative Bias – the tendency to assess the likelihood of an occurrence by inappropriately considering the current situation as identical to past situations Escalation of Commitment – staying with a decision even when there is clear evidence that it is wrong Common Biases and Errors Randomness Error – the tendency to believe that we can predict the outcome of random events Hindsight Bias – the tendency to believe falsely that we accurately predicted the outcome of an event after that outcome is actually known Intuitive Decision Making An unconscious process created out of distilled experience Complements rational analysis Can be a powerful force in decision making When is Intuitive Decision Making Used?
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. A high level of uncertainty exists There is little precedent to draw on Variables are less scientifically predictable “Facts” are limited Facts don’t clearly point the way Analytical data are of little use There are several plausible alternatives with good arguments for each Time is limited and there is pressure to come up with the right decision Individual Differences Personality – specific facets of conscientiousness affect...
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- Spring '11
- Decision Making, representative