COMPUTER PROJECT

COMPUTER PROJECT - COMPUTER PROJECT #1 CRITICAL PATH METHOD...

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COMPUTER PROJECT #1 - CRITICAL PATH METHOD BUS 190 –SPRING 2011- Dr. R. E. Davis WESTERN HILLS SHOPPING CENTER EXPANSION The owner of the Western Hills Shopping Center is planning to modernize and expand the current 32-business shopping center complex. The project is expected to provide room for 8 to 10 new businesses. Financing has been arranged through a private investor. All that remains is for the owner of the shopping center to plan, schedule, and complete the expansion project. The activities and time estimates for this project are shown in the following table, where Modal Time refers to the most likely activity duration within the interval from the Min and Max times. Activity Description Predecessor Min Time Modal Time Max Time A Prepare architectural drawings 4 5 12 B Identify potential new tenants 9 11 13 C Develop prospectus for tenants A 2 4 5 D Select Contractor A 2 3 4 E Prepare Building Permits A 1 1 3 F Obtain approval for building permits E 3 4 5 G Perform Construction D, F 9 10 12 H G 2.5 4 7.5 I Finalize contracts with tenants B, C 11.5 12 12.5 J Tenants move in H, I 1 2 3 The project manager, Jennifer Frost, wants to know the probability of completing this project in 32 weeks, as requested by her boss, and how much more time to ask for in order to have a 99% chance of timely completion. She has heard of PERT, but only knows how to do the Critical Path Method for deterministic analysis, so she tackles the problem by making three scenario analyses, corresponding to the three sets of times (Min, Modal, and Max). She starts with the Modal times as her base case, according to the following procedure. Procedure . 1. Copy and Paste the table given above into a spreadsheet named "CPMmodel", and then add four more columns labeled "EST" for Early Start time, "EFT" for Early Finish time, "LST" for Late Start time, and "LFT" for Late Finish time. The EST and EFT columns will carry the forward pass results, and the LST and LFT columns will carry the backward pass results. 2. The Early Finish time for an activity is the Early Start time of the activity plus the duration of the activity, EF(j) = ES(j) + duration(j). Jennifer inserts this formula in column H row 2 for activity A (=E2+G2) and then fills it down through all the other activities in column H. In like
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manner, the Late Start for an activity is the Late Finish of the activity minus the duration of the activity, or LS(i)=LF(i)-duration(i). Hence in Column I row 2 Jennifer puts the formula =J2-E2 and then copies the formula down through all the activity rows in the table. Do not worry that the results are not correct, because the formulas for ES and LF must be inserted before the correct results will show. Getting these right is the main challenge in the entire process. 3. The early start time at a node j is the maximum of the preceding early finish times, so we will
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COMPUTER PROJECT - COMPUTER PROJECT #1 CRITICAL PATH METHOD...

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