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Final exam formula sheet

# Final exam formula sheet - Forecasting Formula Sheet Nave...

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Forecasting Formula Sheet Naïve Forecast F t+1 = A t Simple Moving Average Weighted Moving Average Exponential Smoothing F t+1 = F t + (A t F t ) or F t+1 = A t + (1 ) F t Trend-Adjusted Exponential Smoothing step 1: F t = A t + (1- ) (F t-1 + T t-1 ) step 2: T t = (F t F t-1 ) + (1 ) T t-1 step 3: TAF t+m = F t + m T t Regression F t ŷ t = b 0 + b 1 x = b 0 + b 1 t F t ŷ t = b 0 + b 1 x 1 + b 2 x 2 + … + b k x k Seasonal Decomposition Forecast Error Mean Absolute Deviation E t = A t F t MAD = | E t | / n Running Sum of Forecast Error Mean Squared Error RSFE = E t MSE = E t 2 / n Mean (or average) Forecast Error Mean Absolute Percent Error MFE = E t / n MAPE = ( | E t / A t |) (100 / n) Tracking Signal = RSFE / MAD Seasonal Index = Demand for period Average Seasonal Demand t n t i t n t i w w 1 i 1 i i 1 t A F t n t i n 1 i 1 t A 1 F

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