AGEC 3413- HOMEWORK 9

AGEC 3413 HOMEWORK - 2011 Quarterly Forecast of Gasoline Prices(1 Past Value Forecast Actual Historical Year/Qtr Quarter Value(t(Yt 2006/Q1 1 2.39

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2011 Quarterly Forecast of Gasoline Prices (1) Past Value Forecast Actual Quarterly Average Prices Historical Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Year/Qtr Quarter Value (t) (Yt) 2.51 3.00 3.01 2.62 2006/Q1 1 2.39 2006/Q2 2 2.89 2006/Q3 3 2.88 Overall Average = 2.78 2006/Q4 4 2.31 2007/Q1 5 2.41 2007/Q2 6 3.06 Quarterly Seasonal Price Factors 2007/Q3 7 2.90 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 2007/Q4 8 3.02 2008/Q1 9 3.16 90.2% 107.7% 108.0% 94.1% 2008/Q2 10 3.81 2008/Q3 11 3.90 2008/Q4 12 2.35 2009/Q1 13 1.94 Quarterly Forecasts for 2011 2009/Q2 14 2.37 2009/Q3 15 2.62 Simple Seasonally Adj. 2009/Q4 16 2.61 Quarter Year/Qtr Linear Trend Linear Trend 2010/Q1 17 2.65 21 2011/Q1 2.75 2.48 2010/Q2 18 2.85 22 2011/Q2 2.75 2.96 2010/Q3 19 2.73 23 2011/Q3 2.75 2.97 2010/Q4 20 2.81 24 2011/Q4 2.74 2.58 Actual Linear Abs. Value Season Ad. Abs. Value Historical Trend Forecast Linear TrendForecast Year/Qtr Quarter Value Forecast Error Forecast Error (t) (Yt) (Ft) | (Yt - Ft) | (Ft) | (Yt - Ft) | 2006/Q1 1 2.39 2.81 0.42 2.54 0.15 2006/Q2 2 2.89 2.81 0.08 3.02 0.13 2006/Q3 3 2.88 2.81 0.07 3.03 0.15 2006/Q4 4 2.31 2.80 0.49 2.64 0.33 2007/Q1 5 2.41 2.80 0.39 2.52 0.11 2007/Q2 6 3.06 2.80 0.26 3.01 0.05 2007/Q3
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This note was uploaded on 04/11/2011 for the course AGEC 3413 taught by Professor Kennedy during the Fall '08 term at LSU.

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AGEC 3413 HOMEWORK - 2011 Quarterly Forecast of Gasoline Prices(1 Past Value Forecast Actual Historical Year/Qtr Quarter Value(t(Yt 2006/Q1 1 2.39

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