Capacity Planning in the Face of Product-Mix Uncertainty

Estimating probabilities now that we have identified

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Unformatted text preview: ding product, we have simplified this issue to the point where it can be quantified so that risks can be compared. Estimating Probabilities Now that we have identified tool-purchase points—those mixes that prompt the purchase of additional tools—we could divide all possible product mixes into constant-toolset regions; i.e., regions over which a given tool set would be adequate (no tool loaded more than 85%). If one could then estimate the probability of the product mix ending up 3 3. 4. © 1999 IEEE. Reprinted, with permission, from Proceedings of the 1999 IEEE International Symposium on Semiconductor Manufacturing Conference, Santa Clara, CA, October 11-13, 1999, 73-76. % OF HEAVIESTLOADING PRODUCT 42% 130% 58% 31% WAFERS in each particular region, one could estimate the probability of having adequate capacity. Then one could trade off risk vs. tool purchase cost. This calculation is not difficult in a two-product case, but when many products are in the mix, the task becomes quite challenging. This paper’s technique, with its simplifying assumptions, provid...
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This note was uploaded on 04/11/2011 for the course ECE 357 taught by Professor Subjolly during the Spring '11 term at National University of Ireland, Galway.

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