Lecture 16

Lecture 16 - Lecture 16 Notes: Phases of the Demographic...

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Lecture 16 Notes: Phases of the Demographic Transition: Phase 1: From Beg to 200 years ago-Traditional society High Birthrate, High death rate, low population. Women’s roles are fixed and stagnant. Phase II: 200 years ago until 100 years ago. Starts in England, the concept of an OBGYN and simple medical techniques causes the death rate to fall. This leads to an increase in population, as less people are dying. However, birthrate stays high, as it is still the women’s role. There is no opportunity cost for women to NOT have children. For the first time in human history, there is a huge gap between the birthrate and the death rate. There is now a fear that there is not enough food to feed the growing population. If the world population continued to grow, chaos would ensue. However, this was remedied by the end of subsistence farming, and by the use of cash crops. Calculate the number of years to double something= ln2/growth rate 0.693/.021 (2 percent growth rate)= population double in 33 years. In reality, the 3 billion in 1960, and 6 billion in 1999, and it took 39 years to double. During this, agricultural activity was 2.5 times higher. Its also cheaper now. Phase III:
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Lecture 16 - Lecture 16 Notes: Phases of the Demographic...

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