This preview shows page 1. Sign up to view the full content.
Unformatted text preview: GMO Crops, Trade Wars, and a New Site Specific Mutagensis System A. Lawrence Christy, Ph.D. Background PhD in Plant Physiology from Ohio State University 12 years with Monsanto R&D in PGR's and herbicides 5 years with USDA National program leader for weed science 6 years with Crop Genetics Intl. Co-founder of AgriTech in 1996 CTO, VP of Operations, and board member of Entek, Inc Co-Founder and President of PhyGenics, LLC Consultant on Bio-Tech regulation and Herbicide tolerance Commercialization of GMO or Transgenic Crops GMO crops have revolutionized agriculture in North America Major impact on the agricultural chemical business Trait development to date Herbicide tolerance Insect resistance Factors other than technology affect commercialization Government Regulation Consumer acceptance Weed control or product efficacy Patents and contracts Growth of Transgenic Crops 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Millions of Acres Total Industrial Developing 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Transgenic crops by country
Acres (Millions) 80 60 40 20 0
a US tin ad in 1999 2000 2001 2002 fri Ca n Ch en A rg S. A A us tra lia a ca a Growth of Transgenic Crops 100
Millions of Acres 80 60 40 20 0 1995 Soybean Corn Cotton Canola 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Market penetration of Roundup Ready in US Soybeans
Technology Market Penetration 100 80 60 40 20 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Years RR Soybeans DVD Players VCR Decks Percent 8 9 10 11 12 13 Growth of Transgenic Crops by Trait 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Total Herbicide Tolerance Insect Resistance Both Millions of Acres 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Herbicide Tolerant Crops Herbicide tolerant crops can be treated with a nonselective herbicide (e.g. Roundup, Liberty) that controls most weeds without damage to the crop. Conventional weed control requires: Two or more herbicides Narrow application window, as little as one day Higher cost Growth of Herbicide Tolerant Traits
Millions of Acres 100 80 60 40 20 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
* Roundup Ready = glyphosate tolerance Roundup Ready Liberty Link Clearfield STS/Sulfonylurea Sethoxydim BXN Benefits and Advantages of Herbicide Tolerant Crops Increased yields Reduced input costs Improved net returns Reduced herbicide use and environmental impact Performance excellent weed control Simplicity single product Rotation crop flexibility Fewer weather and timing problems Soybean Weed Control Profits Shifting to Seed
1998 6.00 5.94 38.00 11.94 2001 7.50 4.38 28.00 11.88 2004 9.65 2.34 15.00 11.99 Technology fee per acre Roundup cost / acre @20ozs/acre Roundup cost / gal Farmer cost for weed control per acre Estimate of Monsanto profit on Roundup Ready Soybeans in 2002 Net sales = $520 MM Net revenue = $ 370 MM Weed Control Profits Shifting to Seed Monsanto Gross Profit Transititon
1400 1200 1000 Millions 800 600 400 200 0 01 02 03 04* Seeds and Traits Roundup Herbicide Source Monsanto 2003 Annual Report *Estimated Market Potential of Several Crops CROP Spring Wheat Winter Wheat Rice Sugarcane Totals Treatable Herbicide HT Trait PhyGenics Acres Tolerance Market Share in (MM) Value Potential 2011 ($/A) ($MM) (%) 42.9 7.00 300 30% 101.4 5.00 507 25% 15.6 312 35% 20.00 15.1 227 35% 15.00 175.0 1,346 PhyGenics Potential Market Opportunity ($MM) 90.1 126.8 109.2 79.3 405.3 * Spring Wheat US, Canada Winter Wheat US, Europe Rice US, Japan. Brazil Sugarcane US, Brazil, S. Africa Biotechnology Research Platforms Biotechnology Research Platforms
Monsanto Commercially Available Traits Syngenta DuPont Dow BASF Bayer RR maize, cotton, canola and soybean B.t. maize, B.t. cotton, Stacked gene (RR/IR) crops RR wheat Stacked gene crops Disease resistance Enhanced Roundup Ready tolerance B.t. maize Licenced in RR and B.t. maize and Herculex I B.t. maize and Herculex I maize LL canola and maize Development traits Inputs Glyphosate tolerance Corn rootworm resistant maize Disease resistance Stacked gene crops Disease resistance maize Soybean cyst nematode resistance Soybean with high oleic content Soybean with low linolenic content WideStrike cotton Corn rootworm resistant maize Herculex II maize Disease resistance Other LL crops Output traits High fermentable starch maize Soybean with low linolenic content Enhanced shelf life banana Microbial phytase Maize with high oil content Canola with high oleic content High oil content Vitamin content Stress tolerance Altered oil content in canola Novel carbohydrate production Stress tolerance Agronomic traits Increased yield in soybean and maize Improved grain size and yield in maize Stress tolerance Drought tolerant maize Note: CRW = corn rootworm; LL = Liberty Link; RR- Roundup Ready; IR = Insect resistant Study of the Impact of GMO crops on Agriculture National Center for Food and Agriculture Policy - NCFAP 40 Biotech Case Studies Herbicide Tolerant Insect Resistant Fungal Resistant Nematode Resistant Viral Resistant Bacterial Resistant 27 Crops in 47 States Literature Review (1100 citations) Interview/Survey of Researchers (180) Written Case Studies Sent to Outside Reviewers (80) Impact of GMO crops in 2001 n n n Food and Fiber Production + 4 Billion Lbs. Farm Income + $ 1.4 Billion Pesticide Use - 52 Million Lbs. Impact of 6 GMO Trait and Crop Combinations Crop Canola Soybean Field Corn Field Corn Cotton Cotton Totals Trait Herbicide Tol. Herbicide Tol. Insect Res. Herbicide Tol. Insect Res. Herbicide Tol. Acres 871,000 50,016,000 14,927,000 5,805,000 5,144,000 9,301,000 86,064,000 Total Net Value Pesticide Use ($000/year) (pounds/year) 11,000 -531,000 1,010,765 -28,703,001 125,356 -2,603,456 58,050 -5,805,000 102,968 -5,144,000 132,676 -9,301,000 1,440,815 -52,087,457 Potential Impact of an additional 20 crops Food and Fiber Production
+ 10 Billion Lbs. Farm Income
+ $ 1 Billion Pesticide Use
- 117 Million Lbs. Why do Environmentalists oppose GMO crops? More pesticide use Insertion of "foreign" genes Foreign promoters disrupt normal gene expression Fear of technology Lack a balanced view Do not play by the rules $$$$$ - follow the money Some recent headlines US seeks $1.6 B from EU over GMO ban EPA extends registration on Monsanto's Bt corn UDV seeks talks on GMO future Venezuela to prohibit transgenic crops Vermont becomes first state with GE seeds labeling law GM maize: EU ministers fail to agree on safety Europe gripped by phantom fears over GM, business chief says Are there some valid concerns??? Pests become resistant to valuable pest control technology Bt insecticide Glyphosate Gene flow to other species development of super weeds or pests Can be prevented Harm non-targeted or beneficial organisms Enhanced allergenicity in food GMO crops are carefully tested Consumer and Trade Issues Food processors not receptive All risk - no benefit from the technology Identity preservation Fear of "Frankenfoods" Risk vs. benefits drives decisions Indirect benefits to consumers Trade issues/regulation EU food safety issue Food labeling being used to keep crops and products out Regulation of transgenic crops US 3 to 5 years and as much as $50 million USDA APHIS Transgenics are regulated Mutations and classical breeding are not regulated FDA novel food and feed EPA pesticidial traits only, i.e., Bt Canada 2 to 4 years, $10 to 25 million CFIA ALL traits are considered novel traits and are regulated The more exotic they are the more it costs and the longer it takes, ie., transgenic's take longer than mutations or classical breeding Regulation of transgenic crops European Union (EU) - many years many $$$ Directive 2001/18 Deliberate release into the environment of a genetically modified organism Transgenics are regulated Mutations and classical breeding are not regulated Regulation 258/97 - Concerning novel foods and food ingredients Recently approved first GMO Other countries Brazil - Regulated by CTNBio Recently approved first GMO India - starting to loosen up Cotton Japan Number of imports approved no crops in production Australia similar to US Discussion So what do you think? Are the environmentalists right or are they just out to make a buck? Is the truth some where in the middle? Consumer acceptance? ...
View Full Document