computational_epidemiology

computational_epidemiology - Epi what.? From Mathematical...

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1 Comp-Epi-2005 From Mathematical Models to Computational Epidemiology Facilitating Epidemiological Research through Computational Tools Armin R. Mikler Computational Epidemiology Research Laboratory Department of Computer Science and Engineering Department of Biological Sciences University of North Texas This research is in part supported by the National Science Foundation award: NSF-0350200 Comp-Epi-2005 Epi Epi what…. .?? what…. .?? What does the word “Epidemiology” mean?? - epi == on, upon, befall demo / demio == people, population, man ology - == the study of The study of which befalls men !! Comp-Epi-2005 One way of dealing with Infectious Diseases How well can we prepare for disasters?? Comp-Epi-2005 Anthrax Another way of dealing with Infectious Diseases Comp-Epi-2005 Smallpox Great concern about the deliberate introduction of diseases by bioterrorists has led to new challenges for mathematical scientists . How does the disease manifest itself in the population ?? Comp-Epi-2005 Waiting on line to get smallpox vaccine during New York City smallpox epidemic (1947) We need to experiment with mass-vaccination strategies When, How, Who, Where – should we vaccinate? What are the predicted outcomes of specific strategies? How should mass-vaccination be organized ?
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2 Comp-Epi-2005 Towards Computational Epidemiology Towards Computational Epidemiology Address broader aspects of Epidemiology Disease Tracking, Analysis, and Surveillance High Performance Computing (HPC) Simulation Data visualization. Contribute towards establishing computational Contribute towards establishing computational epidemiology as a new research domain!! epidemiology as a new research domain!! –Investigating disease outbreaks and risk assessment in spatially delineated environments –Investigating vaccination strategies to control the spread of a disease –Investigating spread of disease over large distances GIS/EPI Data Model Visualization Comp-Epi-2005 Spatially Delineated Regional –D e m o g r a p h y –A g e – Ethnicity – Gender – Socio-economics – Avg. Behavior / Interactions –T r a v e l r a n s p o r t a t i o n – Distances in Miles –G e o g r a p h y – Culture – Delineated space – Finite number of Individuals – Individuals’ Behavior and functions Social interactions – Spatial interactions i r f l o w – Distances in feet Architectural properties Disease Outbreak Model Comp-Epi-2005 Tools of the trade o Mathematical Models ± SIR, SEIR, SIS, etc. ± Population Ecology o Computational solutions: ± Simulations •A g e n t b a s e d • Global Stochastic Field Simulation ± Visualization and Web Interfaces ± High Performance Computing Comp-Epi-2005 Mathematical Modeling of Epidemics Let β be the transmission rate based on contact rate and infectivity Let γ be the rate of infectives becoming non-infectious Removed R Susceptible S Infectives I I dt dR I SI dt dI SI dt dS + = + = = Susceptibles Infectives Removals (SIR) model Susceptibles Exposed Infectives Removals (SEIR)
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computational_epidemiology - Epi what.? From Mathematical...

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