CEE 304  UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS IN ENGINEERING
Second Prelim
in class on
FRIDAY Nov. 9, 2007.
Open book and open notes.
Homework #10 Due:
Monday,
November 5, 2007
Read:
Devore §
8.1  8.2, 8.4  8.5; ActivStats chapter 10.
Goal:
This homework focuses on hypothesis testing. Students should know and be able to explain
the basic principles of hypothesis tests, and how to select the hypothesis, to perform appropriate
tests, to evaluate the type II error, and to estimate the required n for given target type I and II errors
(
α
and b).
We are also concerned about the sources of data. ActivStats Chapter 10 discusses surveying and
survey design. This important subject does not appear in Devore.
Assignments
REQUIRED
ActivStats Lessons
[material NOT in Devore.]
(a) Look at activities one and two on page 101: “Know the basic concepts &
terminology…” and “Understand the value of sampling…”
• How is the definition of the population determined?
• What is a “Simple random sample”?
• Why not just examine every individual in the whole population?
(b)
Look at the two activities on page 102 : “Recognizing under coverage…” and
“Learning about a famous …”
• What TWO fatal mistakes did the
Literary Digest
make?
(c) Look at the two activities on page 103. • From the first, “Witness how biased
…,” what four problems should one try to avoid when conducting a survey?
• What are the answers to the second activity, “Terminology of survey sampling”?
Definition: Click on Green Star after SRS at bottom of page 101. We will discuss these ideas in class.
Devore Problems (Pvalue):
For #32 and 49, use Table A.8 in Devore7 [D6] when you can; A.5 on back cover is a good check.
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 Fall '08
 Stedinger
 Statistical hypothesis testing, DeVore, Uncertainty Analysis

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