MyersAP-Unit02 - Unit 2: Research Methods: Thinking...

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Unit 2: Research Methods: Thinking Critically with Psychological Science Unit Overview • The Need for Psychological Science • How Do Psychologists Ask and Answer Questions? • Statistical Reasoning in Everyday Life • Frequently Asked Questions about Psychology Click on the any of the above hyperlinks to go to that section in the presentation. The Need for Psychology Science
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Did We Know It All Along? Hindsight Bias • Hindsight Bias –“I knew it all along” – “Out of sight, out of mind” – “Absence makes the heart grow fonder”
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Overconfidence • Overconfidence –Together with hindsight bias, can lead to overestimate our intuition The Scientific Attitude • Three main components –Curious eagerness –Skeptically scrutinize competing ideas –Open-minded humility before nature Critical Thinking • Critical Thinking –“Smart thinking” –Four elements • Examines assumptions • Discerns hidden values • Evaluates evidence • Assesses conclusions
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How Do Psychologists Ask and Answer Questions? The Scientific Method • Theory –“mere hunch” • Hypothesis –Can be confirmed or refuted • Operational Definition • Replication (repeat)
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The Scientific Method • A good theory is useful if it: –Effectively organizes a range of self-reports and observations –Implies clear predictions that anyone can use to check the theory Description The Case Study • Case Study –Suggest further study –Cannot discern general truths Description The Survey • Survey –Looks at many cases at once • Word effects • Random sampling –Representative sample
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Description The Survey • Sampling –Population –Random Sample Description Naturalistic Observation • Naturalistic Observation –Describes behavior –Does not explain behavior Correlation • Correlation (correlation coefficient ) –How well does A predict B –Positive versus negative correlation –Strength of the correlation • -1.0 to +1.0 –Scatterplot
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Correlation Correlation Correlation
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Correlation Correlation Correlation
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Correlation Correlation and Causation • Correlation helps predict –Does not imply cause and effect Correlation Illusory Correlations • Illusory Correlation –Perceived non-existent correlation –A random coincidence
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Correlation Perceiving Order in Random Events • Comes from our need to make sense out of the world –Coin flip –Poker hand
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MyersAP-Unit02 - Unit 2: Research Methods: Thinking...

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