Forest%20Fires%20-%20Safford_Sierra_10-11-2010

Forest%20Fires%20-%20Safford_Sierra_10-11-2010 - Climate...

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Unformatted text preview: Climate change, forests and fire: issues in current and future resource management in the California National Forests Hugh Safford Regional Ecologist USDA Forest Service Pacific Southwest Region 1323 Club Drive Vallejo, CA 94592 Department of Environmental Science and Policy University of California Davis, CA 95616 hughsafford@fs.fed.us 707 562 8934 I. I. Review of climate trends and projections Review of climate trends and projections II. II. Review of fire trends and projections Review of fire trends and projections III. III. Ecological implications for resource mgt. Ecological implications for resource mgt.- Biological: Biological: Vegetation Vegetation Plant diversity Plant diversity Wildlife habitat Wildlife habitat- Physical: Physical: Carbon Carbon Water and soil Water and soil IV. IV. Conclusions Conclusions Outline Not a focus of my presentation California: mean annual temps, 1920-2005 Temperatures are climbing Tahoe City: number of days below freezing, 1910-2009 Moser et al. 2009 TERC 2009 C L I M A T E C L I M A T E y = 0.0422x - 52.554 R2 = 0.574, P < 0.0001 y = 0.0174x + 22.087 R2 = 0.076, NS y = 0.0298x - 15.196 R2 = 0.363, P = 0.056 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Degrees Fahrenheit Mean max Mean Mean min 1940 1950 19 60 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year 20 30 40 50 60 Degrees Farenheit Mean Min Mean Mean Ma x Mean Max: y = 0.008x+4 0.982; R 2 = 0.0137, NS Mean: y = 0 .0395x-31.6, R 2 = 0.3515, P< 0.0001 Mean Min: y = 0.0722x-106.73, R 2 = 0.5 827, P <0.0001 Tahoe City: 1899 m elevation Grants Grove (SEKI): 2006 m elevation Nighttime minima drive the pattern C L I M A T E 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC % of years with mean minimum <32 deg F Nevada City (2600 ft) 1894-1943 1976-2008 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC % of years with mean minimum <32 deg F Hetch Hetchy (3870 ft) 1911-1943 1976-2008 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC % of years with mean minimum <32 deg F Tahoe City (6230 ft) 1909-1945 1976-2008 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC % of years with mean minimum <32 deg F Huntington Lake (7020 ft) 1915-1947 1976-2008 Early 20 th cent. vs. today: many fewer nights with frost N S i e r r a S S i e r r a C L I M A T E 100+ year record shows modest increase in mean annual ppt in most California climate regions Precipitation is ~steady WRCC 2009 C L I M A T E 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 5-yr standard deviation in annual precipitation Year Tahoe City: snow as a fraction of total precipitation 5-yr running standard deviations in mean annual precipitation Lake Tahoe Interannual variability in ppt. is up*, and snow:rain proportion is down * but not at al stations WRCC 2009 TERC 2009 C L I M A T E Winter snowpack is down across most of California Summer moisture in California montane...
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Forest%20Fires%20-%20Safford_Sierra_10-11-2010 - Climate...

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